Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets Odds & Game Picks (2021)
The Week 8 clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets features two teams heading in opposite directions. The New York Jets are a dumpster fire, once again. At the same time, the Cincinnati Bengals are riding high off the franchise’s biggest wins in what feels like forever. With a spread in the double digits, is this a chance to buy low on the Jets and sell high on the Bengals? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: New York -1.5
- Current line: Cincinnati -10.5
- Total: 42.5
Making sense of this insane line movement.
The bullet points above are not typos. The early lookahead line was New York as short home favorites. So why the massive swing? Well… a few reasons.
Both of these teams are coming off of polar opposite results in Week 7. The Jets were thwarted by the New England Patriots, 54-13, coming off their bye week. It was arguably the most pitiful performance of any team in the 2021 season.
On the flip side, the Bengals pulled a massive upset as 6.5-point underdogs, taking it to the Baltimore Ravens on the road to seize first place in the AFC North.
Then, we found out that Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson suffered a PCL injury that will keep him sidelined for 2-to-4 weeks. And in typical Jets fashion, they don’t have a viable backup plan. So coach Robert Saleh announced that backup Mike White would get the start Sunday, and the team went out and gave up a conditional draft pick to bring Joe Flacco back to the Big Apple.
So, with the sentiment on the Jets at rock bottom and feeling on the Bengals sky high, you can hopefully make sense of this insane line movement.
Jets are a train wreck.
The Jets screwed up Sam Darnold and are not learning from their mistakes. Wilson is a flawed but talented prospect who’s getting absolutely no help. New York has the third-highest adjusted sack rate in the league at 8.8%. Wilson has been sacked 20 times and gets very little help from his running game, which ranks 22nd in DVOA and is averaging a league-low 72 yards per game on the ground.
The only real bright spot had been New York’s defense. While the unit lacked talent, it was playing hard and appeared to be well-coached. But all of that progress was seemingly wiped away last week, as New York surrendered 551 total yards to a pretty mediocre Patriots offense.
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Has Cincinnati turned a corner?
Wow, even though I leaned with the underdog Bengals last week, I didn’t expect them to win that game straight up. Instead, Joe Burrow was perfect and continues to solidify himself as a budding franchise QB. Cincinnati leaned heavily on Burrow, and he delivered, throwing for 416 yards and three touchdowns.
And while many (including myself) questioned the decision to draft Ja’Marr Chase in the draft, it’s safe to say the Bengals got that pick right. Chase is already a stud pass catcher and is the frontrunner to win NFL Rookie of the Year. The trio of him, Tee Higgins (who got 15 targets last week), and safety valve Tyler Boyd are tough to stop. Even tight end C.J. Uzomah is getting in the mix.
But while the Bengals pass the eye test, the advanced analytics still seem unconvinced. Cincinnati ranks 18th in overall offensive DVOA, 18th in rushing DVOA, and 16th in passing DVOA. And the offensive line is still a concern, as the Bengals have an adjusted sack rate of 7.2%.
The real catalyst for Cincinnati’s turnaround has been its defense, which ranks fifth in DVOA and is top 10 against the run and the pass per DVOA.
The Bengals are the better team on paper, but this is a tough spot and new territory for this team. This is only the sixth time the Bengals have been favored since Zac Taylor became coach in 2019 and the third time they’ve been a road favorite. Taylor is 2-4 as a favorite and 1-1 as a road favorite. However, two weeks ago, Taylor and the Bengals closed as 3.5-point road favorites against the Lions and won by 23.
Bottom Line
I will be getting my brain scanned after posting this, but your bet has to be Jets or nothing on this game.
I know, I know, I know. You’d probably rather flush a $100 bill down the toilet before betting on the Jets led by Mike White. But in the NFL, we have to do our best to avoid overreacting to what we just saw. The Jets stink. But are the Bengals two touchdowns better than them on a neutral field?
And when you throw in the motivation factor, it’s even harder to justify backing the Bengals at this high of a number. On the other hand, the Jets will surely make a better effort after being embarrassed by their division rival for the second time.
Meanwhile, this is a sandwich spot for Cincinnati, who hosts Cleveland in another pivotal AFC North game next week.
I know. It’s complicated with the Jets. But this line movement has gotten a bit out of control. I’d wait to see how high it goes, as the public will undoubtedly be hammering the Bengals.
Pick: Jets +10 or better, or nothing
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.