Citrus Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (LSU vs. Purdue)
Here are Thor Nystrom’s best bets for the College Football Bowl Game: Citrus Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through January 1): 24-16-1 ATS (60.0%)
2022 combined: 106-82-4 ATS (56.4%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Citrus Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (LSU vs. Purdue)
Monday, January 2 | 12:00 PM
LSU (-14.5) vs. Purdue | Total: 56
ATL: LSU -12.0 | ATT: 55.5
LSU
QB Jayden Daniels (Injury)
RB ​​Armoni Goodwin (Injury)
WR Jack Bech (Transfer portal)
WR Kyren Lacy (Injury)
WR Jaray Jenkins (Opt-out)
WR Chris Hilton Jr. (Injury)
WR Kayshon Boutte (Opt-out)
TE Kole Taylor (Transfer portal)
OG Xavier Hill (Transfer portal)
OT Cam Wire (Transfer portal)
OT Marcus Dumervil (Transfer portal)
DT Maason Smith (Injury)
NT Jaquelin Roy (Opt-out)
EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
EDGE Ali Gaye (Opt-out)
EDGE Desmond Little (Transfer portal)
LB Kolbe Fields (Transfer portal)
LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
CB Sevyn Banks (Injury)
CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (Transfer portal)
CB Damarius McGhee (Transfer portal)
CB Mekhi Garner (Opt-out)
S Derrick Davis Jr. (Transfer portal)
QB Daniels played hurt at the end of the regular season. Following the finale against Texas A&M in late-November, he was in a walking boot. And though Daniels was able to start the SEC Championship a week later, he limped off the field and didn’t finish it.
After the game, HC Brian Kelly confirmed Daniels aggravated the ankle injury. Kelly said Daniels would need 7-10 days to fully recover. Ostensibly, that should mean Daniels will be healthy for this game. If he’s not, QB2 Garrett Nussmeier will draw the start. That’s undoubtedly a downgrade, though Nussmeier did flash arm talent in his looks this fall.
WR Jenkins declared for the NFL Draft and said he won’t play in the bowl game. He posted 27 catches for 404 yards and six TD in 2022. WR Lacy suffered an undisclosed injury against Texas A&M and left the game early. WR Bech’s season was interrupted by injuries – he posted 16 catches for 200 yards and one TD. Bech transferred to TCU.
LSU WR Kayshon Boutte, the team’s most dangerous receiver, reversed-course on Wednesday and declared for the NFL Draft and opted-out. Boutte previously-announced he would return to school for the 2023 season. WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., will need to play heavy snaps in this game.
EDGE Ojulari declared for the NFL Draft and opted-out. Ojulari was followed by EDGE Gaye and NT Roy, who each made the same decisions. And with that, DT Mekhi Wingo remained as LSU lone remaining starting defensive lineman left standing for the bowl game.
Ojulari formed a scary pass-rushing duo with young LB Harold Perkins this fall – it’ll be Perkins’ responsibility to pick up the slack in the bowl game. Ward also started, but posted a measly 53.5 PFF grade this fall.
CB Ward and CB Garner also declared and will sit. Garner had 43 tackles and a team-high eight pass deflections in his one year starting at LSU after transferring over from ULL. Garner accepted an invitation to the Shrine Bowl.
CB Bank is questionable with a spinal cord bruise. RB Goodwin is out for the season with a knee injury. WR Hilton Jr. underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in October. DT Smith was shut down in September with a torn ACL.
Purdue
QB Aidan O’Connell (Opt-out)
RB Kobe Lewis (Transfer portal)
RB King Doerue (Injury)
WR Charlie Jones (Opt-out)
WR Elijah Canion (Injury)
WR Broc Thompson (Injury)
TE Payne Durham (Opt-out)
OG Spencer Holstege (Transfer portal)
DT Greg Hudgins III (Transfer portal)
CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
S Chris Jefferson (Personal)
Purdue has been decimated by opt-outs. QB O’Connell, WR Jones, TE Durham, LG Holstege and CB Trice were all starters. All but Holstege declared for the draft and opted-out – Holstege is transferring to UCLA.
QB O’Connell, a second-team All-Big Ten selection, led the conference in the regular season with 290.8 YPG passing. He finished with 22 TD and 3,490 yards this fall.
WR Jones led the nation with 110 catches, adding 1,361 yards receiving and 12 TD, in his first year at the school after transferring from Iowa. Jones was a semifinalist for the 2022 Biletnikoff Award.
TE Durham, a second-team All-Big Ten honoree, posted a 56-560-8 receiving line. Between the defections of O’Connell, Jones, and Durham, a once-scary Purdue passing attack is now toothless. Sixth-year QB2 Austin Burton will start in place of O’Connell, with redshirt junior QB3 Michael Alaimo the backup.
It doesn’t help Purdue that WRs Canion and Thompson – expected to be larger contributors this year – were limited to 59 combined snaps in the fall due to injury. It would be surprising if either is back for the bowl.
Unfortunately, the defense didn’t escape opt-outs unscathed. CB Trice had 10 pass deflections and two interceptions in 2022. S Jefferson, who began the season as a fellow-starter in the secondary, left the team in October to focus on his mental health.
Coaching news
Former HC Jeff Brohm left to take the head coaching position at his alma mater Louisville. Interestingly, Purdue named his brother, OC Brian Brohm, interim HC for the bowl game. DC Ron English did immediately follow Jeff Brohm to Louisville – English won’t coach in this game. Purdue hired Illinois DC Ryan Walters to replace Brohm. Walters is not involved with bowl prep.
Handicap
Another bowl with so many opt-outs that it’s hard to have a clean handicap. But our analysis suggests that, in lieu of the opt-outs on both sides, the market has taken its LSU love a little far. Our numbers peg this game LSU -12.0.
LSU suffered massive defections in the receiving corps and on defense. So the Tigers figure to skew even more run-heavy, here, in an effort to not overexpose a depleted receiving corps while leaning into a strength, meanwhile controlling the clock to help the picked-apart defense.
But LSU’s run game has health concerns for both QB Daniels and RB Goodwin. And Purdue’s run defense (No. 40 success rate) profiles to potentially be able to slow LSU’s run game (No. 4) – at least a bit.
Even though Purdue’s secondary had losses of its own, Purdue’s pass defense profiles to have the advantage over LSU’s passing offense due to the latter’s receiver room being looted by defections.
So far, the handicap doesn’t look so bad for an underdog catching over two touchdowns. But will Purdue be able to move the ball any? With QB O’Connell, WR Jones, TE Durham, and LG Holstege out, Purdue’s offense gets chopped down to size. Of course, LSU’s defense is out five starters.
The Boilermakers have a veteran backup in QB2 Austin Burton. Burton is not near the thrower O’Connell is. But Burton is a far superior runner, and can complete short-and-intermediate throws. Purdue’s offense won’t be explosive.
But between starting RB Mockabee playing and the threat of Burton’s legs, the Boilermakers should be able to carve out multiple extended drives against this inexperienced LSU defense.
I’m concerned with all the defections on the LSU side. Purdue lost a series of key contributors as well, but not nearly as many. Because of that, I think this line overstates things. LSU HC Brian Kelly is only 5-9 ATS career in bowl games.
I have to imagine he’s been more invested in recruiting and the portal than figuring out how to tailor-make a perfect game-plan with myriad reserves thrust into key roles. We’re taking the points on what we believe to be an artificially-bloated spread.
The pick: Purdue +14.5
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