Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Despite a 2-1 start, Clemson has moved down the AP Top-25 rankings due to a lackluster performance on Saturday. Clemson’s offense was once extremely powerful with plenty of points per game. Through three games, they’ve scored an average of just 22 points per game. Unfortunately for Clemson, it won’t get easier facing the North Carolina State Wolfpack who have looked fantastic on the defensive end through three games this season. Will Clemson’s offense take off or will we watch another low-scoring, defensive battle in the ACC?
Here’s a look at one of the more anticipated ACC matchups as we look to find some betting value.
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Details
- Opening Line: Clemson -12, O/U 46.5
- Current Line: Clemson -9.5, O/U 547
- Last meeting: November 9, 2019, Clemson 55, NC State 10
Overview
Clemson doesn’t have Trevor Lawrence under center. They also don’t have Travis Etienne at running back. They’ve had to rely on new talent this season between quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei and running back Will Shipley. On the season, Uiagalelei has thrown just one touchdown in three games along with two touchdowns. He’s thrown for just 475 yards in three games.
It’s completely stunning. At first, Clemson took a loss against Georgia and faced what will likely be the best defense in the league when the season concludes. A bad defensive performance isn’t great but it’s understood. However, Clemson took care of business against South Carolina State but struggled offensively against Georgia Tech, scoring just 14 points. They won a close battle, 14-8 against Georgia Tech, and really put themselves in a position where they could’ve lost to Georgia Tech.
The offense has not been up to standards at Clemson but the defense has, especially in coverage. The pass rush will continue to get better and tackling will develop. So far, Clemson has allowed just seven points per content with only 266.7 yards per game allowed. Defensively, they’ve come up big in huge spots. Once the offense starts to click, Clemson will be scary.
But that’s the thing. Clemson’s offense might not click this season. They might struggle all year long and it certainly won’t get easy against NC State. NC State has allowed 10.3 points per game through three games this season along with just 261 yards allowed.
The Wolfpack have allowed just 72.7 yards on the ground per game and look like a really great defense against any team’s ground game. The coverage has also looked solid and at this point in the season, the Wolfpack have done a better job tackling. Overall, NC State has defeated South Florida and Furman and took a loss to Mississippi State, 24-10. They’ve got nothing insane on their resume and the analytics don’t really share the entire story for NC State.
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Trends
- Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
- Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack last 4 games following an ATS win.
Bottom Line
Clemson’s offense is legitimately a disaster at this point but thanks to their defense, they’ll be in games and win most, if not all games on their upcoming schedule. NC State tore apart USF and Furman but only scored 10 points against an actual defense like Mississippi State. I’m high on both of these defenses but don’t really love much on the offensive end. Devin Leary has looked good to start the season but it’s not going to be easy for the sophomore going up against this Clemson defense. The total seems a bit high for a game between these two teams. The Under 47 is the play. Even if Clemson scores 31 points, the game would still more than likely go under. Is Clemson able to score more than 31 with their offense? I don’t think so.
Pick: Under 47 (-110)
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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.