Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Game Pick (2021)

This Sunday, the stakes will be high as a pair of in-state divisional rivals collide in the Queen City. Both the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals swallowed tough losses last weekend. Only one side will be able to get back on track in Week 9. Along with bragging rights within Ohio, this game is critical in the crowded AFC North Division race. The NFL betting odds have dubbed the home side as a short favorite ahead of this matchup.

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Details

Opening Lines: Bengals -3; O/U 45
Current Lines: Bengals -2.5; O/U 47
Location: Paul Brown Stadium - Cincinnati, OH
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: October 25, 2020 - The Browns defeated the Bengals 37-34 in Cincinnati.

Overview

The Browns come into this NFL betting showdown, having lost three of their last four games. This also marks Cleveland’s second straight divisional opponent following a 15-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Last Sunday, Baker Mayfield was back under center, and Nick Chubb was also back serving as the Browns' lead ball-carrier. However, none of that mattered against the stingy Steelers defense. The Browns barely cracked the 300-yard threshold and also lost the turnover battle last week. 

While the Bengals defense projects to have more give than Pittsburgh's, nothing figures to come easy for the Browns again on Sunday. The passing game has struggled mightily since losing a shootout out west a few weeks ago. Knowing that Mayfield is playing through a shoulder injury leads one to believe that that trend could continue. With Odell Beckham Jr.'s father now taking shots at Mayfield, perhaps there are more chemistry issues than initially thought as well. Defensively, the Browns rank third in adjusted efficiency against the run, according to Football Outsiders. However, they are one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to defending the pass. It will be paramount for star pass-rushers Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney to get home.

Two weeks ago, the Bengals were riding high after shocking the NFL betting world with a convincing road win over the division-rival Baltimore Ravens. Then, in a very Bengals-like fashion, Cincinnati came crashing back down to Earth with a loss to backup QB Mike White and the New York Jets last Sunday. After falling victim to the trap game, Zac Taylor's squad now must regroup ahead of yet another crucial AFC North contest. A win would mean that the Bengals have beaten all three of their divisional foes in the respective first head-to-head meetings.

So long as the Bengals' shaky offensive line can hold up, Joe Burrow and the array of talented pass-catchers should be able to do some severe damage against the vulnerable Browns secondary. Last week's loss was no fault of Burrow's. He finished with three touchdowns and 259 yards passing. Tee Higgins was Cincinnati's leading receiver in terms of yards while both Tyler Boyd and running back Joe Mixon hauled in TD receptions. The Bengals did allow the Jets pass rush to get home for three sacks, though. As a result, Cincinnati's pass protection could prove to be the X-factor in this NFL betting matchup.

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Trends

• The total has gone under in four of the Browns' last six games.
• Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• Five of the Bengals' last seven games have gone under the total.
• Bengals are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as an NFL betting favorite.
• Bengals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 head-to-head matchups against the Browns.

Bottom Line

It's fascinating to note that the overwhelming majority of betting tickets are on the Bengals ahead of this AFC North clash. Despite last week's disappointing loss to the lowly Jets, the NFL betting public views Cincinnati as the superior team to the Browns. Yet, this is the same Cleveland squad that public bettors had no problem supporting as short home favorites last week against the Steelers. So something doesn't quite add up. The last thing a wise bettor will do is bet the favorite blindly in this matchup.

Although the Bengals have covered three straight head-to-head matchups in this series and four of the last five overall, they were notably underdogs in all of them. As a betting favorite, Cincinnati has struggled to meet expectations. Look no further than last Sunday for a recent example. While Joe Burrow certainly has the receiving weapons to destroy the weak Browns' secondary, it's hard to be confident he will have any time in the pocket. The Browns will live and die by the performance of their defensive front. Big divisional games like this are precisely why they paid Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney the big bucks. 

A lot of people overlooked the Bengals' defense coming into the year. Despite last week's showing, the unit has played tremendously over the first two months of the season. The Bengals are one of just five teams that enter Week 9 ranked in the top-10 in both scoring offense and defense. Will they be able to hold up against Nick Chubb and the Browns' run-heavy offensive attack? Cleveland arguably has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Backing divisional underdogs is always an intriguing NFL betting maneuver.

Pick: Browns +2.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.