Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick (2021)
A critical battle for AFC playoff seeding will occur Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium when the 5-4 Cleveland Browns battle the New England Patriots.
The Patriots appear to be hitting their stride and are riding a three-game winning streak, while the Browns are back in the win column after a dramatic week involving former wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
Is the wrong team favored in this game? Letâs break it down.
Get a 100% deposit bonus up to $500 at BetAmerica >>
Details
- Opening line: New England -0.5
- Current line: New England -2.5
- Total: 45
Cleveland keeping its season alive
Despite a rash of injuries and serious drama involving Beckham, the Browns are still somehow 5-4. What was supposed to be a great season for Cleveland hasnât panned out quite as expected. But the Browns are somehow still alive, and they might be better than their record indicates.
The Browns rank sixth in total DVOA, fifth in offensive DVOA, 12th in defensive DVOA, and have 6.4 estimated wins, the fifth most in the league. Clevelandâs on-field performance finally started to mesh with what the analytics said last weekend when they steamrolled the Cincinnati Bengals, 41-16, and were led by 153 rushing yards.
The Browns put an even greater emphasis on the running game last week, handing the ball off 23 times compared to 21 pass attempts. Clevelandâs at its best when itâs gashing chunk yardage on the ground, and thatâs especially true given Baker Mayfieldâs shoulder injury. If the Browns can continue to seize control and take the pressure off Mayfield, theyâll be primed for similar success.
Not having Nick Chubb due to COVID-19 protocols hurts, but not enough to completely sway the spread. With Kareem Hunt still out with a calf injury, the Browns will turn back to DâErnest Johnson, who ran for 146 yards a few weeks ago as the featured back against Denver.
Defensively, Clevelandâs only area of weakness is against the pass, where it ranks 19th in DVOA. However, Clevelandâs secondary hasnât been at full strength for most of the year and is finally rounding into shape. Plus, the Browns have been able to generate pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Better health in the secondary could help this defense improve significantly.
Check out all of our NFL game previews and picks for the week >>
How good are the Patriots?
The Patriots are a difficult team to figure out. What they lack in talent, they make up for in coaching. Yet, I canât get myself to view this team as much more than slightly above average. DVOA appears to agree, as they rank New England 13th overall. But of New Englandâs five wins, four have come against the Jets, Texans, and Panthers.
Mac Jones has undoubtedly delivered the earliest returns among the 2021 rookie quarterbacks. However, the Patriots still can be reluctant to take the training wheels off him. Like Cleveland, New England prefers to control the game on the ground and keep their rookie passer ahead of the chains. This offense is hardly prolific, though, ranking just 17th in rushing DVOA and 21st in passing DVOA.
New Englandâs offense also has injuries in its running back room, as Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are both at risk of missing Sundayâs game with concussions. New England might be forced to rely on Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor, who arenât quite as good running between the tackles.
Defensively, Bill Belichick has done another really good job. New England wins with a scheme, not necessarily talent. The Patriotsâ defense ranks fifth in defensive DVOA and sixth against the pass. However, it ranks just 17th in rush defense DVOA, something the Browns could exploit.
Bottom Line
I have a hunch the wrong team is favored in this one. Cleveland has the more talented roster and could find success on the ground even without Chubb. I also suspect Jones could struggle against the most fearsome pass rush heâs seen this season.
While Iâd lean on taking the points, I feel more confident in the under. Both teams prioritize the ground game but will be missing key players out of the backfield. And neither the Browns nor Patriots have enough explosive pass catchers for this game to turn into a shootout. This feels like a close, grind-it-out game that comes down to the final possession.
Pick: Under 45, lean Browns +2.5
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether youâre new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section â including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â or head to more advanced strategies â like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â to learn more.
Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.