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College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (3/11)

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Just two more days remain in the college basketball regular season, as every conference tournament remaining is playing semifinal or championship games today.

With only the best teams remaining in several conferences nationwide, we are treated to five ranked vs. ranked matchups. However, none of those are in the Big Ten tournament, as two double-digit seeds (No. 10 Penn State and No. 13 Ohio State) crashed the party in the semifinal round. Elsewhere, it is chalk at the Big East tournament, and Matt Norlander gave a historical perspective on Twitter on how rarely the top two seeds have met in the conference championship game.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college basketball action.

  • YTD: 48-36-1

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Best College Basketball Bets for Saturday

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Ohio State vs. Purdue Spread

Is Ohio State really going to go from a 3-14 start in league play to an outright bid stealer by winning the Big Ten tournament? We have all the respect in the world for the job Buckeyes head coach Chris Holtmann has done keeping his team together with five wins in its last six games. However, Purdue swept the regular season series from the Buckeyes, and Ohio State potentially being without forward Brice Sensabaugh (he missed yesterday’s game with knee soreness) puts serious doubts that their run of upsets will continue.

Ohio State was very competitive in a two-point home loss in early January when the Buckeyes held Boilermakers center Zach Edey to 16 points (tied for his fourth-lowest scoring output in Big Ten play this season). That was despite leading rebounder Zed Key playing just four minutes before suffering his shoulder injury. However, per Synergy, Purdue scored 1.6 points per possession in which Ohio State doubled the post in that game, which they will have to do nearly every time Edey touches the ball without Key’s size to defend him one-on-one.

Sensabaugh scored 41 combined points in two games against Purdue this year, and his potential absence further complicates things for the Buckeyes, who are playing their fourth game in four days. That is why we expect the Boilermakers to snap an 0-10 ATS streak in the Big Ten tournament since 2016.

Bet: Purdue -7 (-110 at DraftKings)

Missouri vs. Alabama Team Total O/U

Alabama’s offensive and defensive balance is a huge reason it is on a short list of national championship contenders. The Crimson Tide are one of four teams in the country that rank in the top 19 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Alabama’s defense has been especially imposing, with the third-best three-point shooting percentage and D-I’s best two-point shooting percentage allowed. And despite all that, we feel Missouri’s projected team total will be too low in this game.

Alabama held Missouri to 64 points in their first meeting, which was tied for the Tigers’ lowest-scoring output of the season at the time. Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats had been 0-2 in trips to Columbia before that victory and pushed all the right buttons to thwart Missouri’s high-powered offense. However, the Tigers were missing leading scorer Kobe Brown (15.9 points per game, 20.5 in the last two). And without his inside presence, the team had no threat inside the arc and settled for 28 3-point attempts, of which they made three. We expect more inside-outside balance to make all the difference offensively for Missouri. In addition, its SEC-leading 3-point percentage (35.0%) suggests they are due for significant positive regression from the 10.7% it shot from beyond the arc in the first meeting.

We do not expect Missouri to pull an outright upset, given it is 0-10 SU in its last five games against AP-top five opponents. However, with a spread of -9 and an O/U of 157, Missouri has an implied team total of 74 points, and that is where we are comfortable playing this number when that prop becomes available at DraftKings.

Bet: Missouri Team Total Over 74 (OFF at DraftKings)

Xavier vs. Marquette Spread

Marquette may have gotten the monkey off its back with its semifinal win over UConn, as the Golden Eagles were 0-3 all-time in Big East tournament semifinal games. The victory was Marquette’s eighth straight (13-1 SU in its last 14), and it cooled off a UConn team that had won six consecutive games. However, the way Xavier played without forward Zach Freemantle (the team’s third-leading scorer and leading rebounder) yesterday should provide Musketeers fans a sigh of relief that the team’s Final Four aspirations may not be dead after all.

Xavier’s lack of frontcourt depth did not hurt them when facing Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner. The team held the Bluejays to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc (14-for-33) and out-rebounded Creighton by 17 after losing the rebounding battle by seven in their last meeting.
Playing smaller should help Xavier against Marquette, as the Golden Eagles are smaller than most teams in the Big East and rank 160th in average height in the country. In their last meeting, the Musketeers raced out to an early 13-point lead through the game’s first 12 minutes at Marquette. We expect them to hold the lead this time at a neutral site after scoring 1.21 points per possession against a Creighton team that ranked No. 1 in league play in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense, and 2-point shooting percentage allowed.

Xavier went an impressive 7-2-1 ATS as underdogs this year. While we would not put anyone off backing its moneyline odds with such a small point spread, we do not mind taking the extra insurance point, given Marquette’s flair for dramatic finishes.

Bet: Xavier +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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