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College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/1)

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With Monday’s release of the AP poll, it was no shock to see Houston and Alabama remain No. 1 and No. 2. However, Kansas is starting to get the respect many feel it deserves despite coming in at No. 3, as it garnered eight first-place votes (three more than Alabama’s five). With the Jayhawks’ win over Texas Tech on Tuesday, Kansas improved to 15-5 in Quad 1 games, and no other team has more than 11. Are they on track to be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament?

Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s college basketball action.

  • YTD (as of 1/21): 42-29

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Wednesday:

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Best College Basketball Bets for Wednesday

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Xavier vs. Providence ML

We have seen home teams dominate in many conferences like the Big Ten, and that is especially true in the Big East. For example, when Providence lost by 18 points at UConn last Wednesday, it brought the home record of the Big East’s top five teams (Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence, and UConn) to a combined 38-4, with their road records at an even .500 (21-21). Thus, we will jump at the opportunity any time we can back a Big East home team at reasonable moneyline odds.

The Friars are a perfect 15-0 at home this season and have won 34 of their last 35 at home overall. Head coach Ed Cooley challenged his team’s toughness after getting out-rebounded 40-20 in the loss to UConn, and it responded by out-rebounding Georgetown by seven in a 20-point road win. The backboards should not be as much of an issue against a Xavier team without its leading rebounder and third-leading rebounder in the conference, forward Zach Freemantle (8.1 rebounds per game). In addition, Providence is built to negate the Musketeers’ biggest strength, as it allows a league-low 29.6% from 3-point range, while Xavier makes a conference-high 38.9% of its 3-point shots in league play.

Providence has covered 13 of 18 Big East games, but we will opt for its reasonable moneyline odds against a Musketeers team that has lost three of their last five.

Bet: Providence ML (-165 at DraftKings)

Texas vs. TCU Spread

TCU is undervalued in this game, as it has lost five of seven. However, that does not take into consideration that four of those losses were when it was without leading scorer Mike Miles Jr. (18.0 points per game). However, Miles is back with a vengeance, as his 24 points against the Red Raiders were his second-most since November 11th. We expect him to once again jumpstart an offense that ranks fourth in the Big 12 in field goal percentage and fifth in points per game.

Texas has less motivation in this game ahead of Saturday’s showdown with Kansas given that the Jayhawks clinched the Big 12 regular season title with a win over Texas Tech. In addition, the Longhorns’ heavy isolation offense was thwarted by Baylor on Saturday, being held to 0.95 points per possession. It is especially concerning that the Longhorns could not take advantage of the Bears being without leading scorer Keyonte George, who missed all but six minutes of the nine-point loss.

TCU’s defense entered its one-point road win over Texas Tech ranked 252nd (per ShotQuality) but is much more susceptible to off-ball action, which is not the Longhorns’ forte. The Horned Frogs are 9-6-1 ATS at home, while the Longhorns have covered just three of nine road games, which has us confident backing TCU in this pivotal matchup.

Bet: TCU -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Utah State vs. UNLV Spread

Utah State is becoming one of the most interesting “bubble” cases, as they rank 30th in the NET despite not owning a Quad 1 win (0-4). However, pundits like Jacob Nielson feel the Aggies are safer than most if they have a solid ending to the season. Will the pressure get to them?

UNLV has lost four consecutive games in this rivalry, with three of the four by at least nine points. However, the Runnin’ Rebels lost by four at Utah State earlier this year, which is encouraging despite being the victim of a 3-point barrage (the Aggies made 11-of-25 from deep). However, we expect that shooting to regress on the road, as Utah State has averaged just 64.5 points per game in its last two road games and made 28.9% (13-of-45) of its 3-point attempts.

The Aggies rank 54th nationally in the percentage of points coming from beyond the arc, which is concerning if further road shooting regression looms tonight. In addition, this is a solid three-star play, as we expect more production from UNLV point guard EJ Harkless. Harkless was held to two points in 13 minutes after playing through foul trouble in the first meeting but has scored in double figures and averaged 21.8 points in the ten games since.

UNLV is just 4-10 ATS at home but is 1-1 ATS in two games as home ‘dogs. Back the Runnin’ Rebels to cover against a Utah State team that is a much better ATS team at home (9-5) than on the road (5-5).

Bet: UNLV +2 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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