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College Basketball March Madness National Championship Game Prop Bets (2023)

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Per the Elias Sports Bureau, this was the first Final Four in NCAA Tournament history without a single former McDonald’s All-American on any of the four rosters. In addition, there was also not a former top-35 recruit in action, per the Recruiting Services Consensus Index. However, that does not mean the National Championship Game lacks talent, as four of the RSCI’s top 50 players are on UConn. Do any of these Huskies infiltrate our list of best game prop bets from a player prop perspective?

Here are our best prop bets from the National Championship Game between San Diego State and UConn (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook).

Nathan Mensah UNDER 5.5 points (-146)

Mensah is not known as a scorer, as he averages 6.1 points per game. However, he is in for a massive challenge against two defenders playing at an extremely high level in UConn’s Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. Entering the Final Four, UConn averaged allowing 89.7 points per possession with Clingan on the floor, including a 41.2% field goal percentage at the rim, per Pivot Analysis. That points per game average increases to 103.7 points per possession with Clingan on the bench. And with how dominant Sanogo has been offensively, scoring 101 points through the first five tournament games, he could easily get Mensah into foul trouble and limit his minutes to fewer than the 20.7 he has averaged all season.

 

Jordan Hawkins UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (-125)

Jordan Hawkins is a projected first-round NBA talent who has made a team-leading 107 3-point attempts (the next closest teammate is Alex Karaban with 65) on 38.6% shooting from beyond the arc. However, the Aztecs have held their opponents to 25-of-116 (21.6%) from 3-point range throughout the tournament. Hawkins has made at least three 3-pointers in 10 of his last 12 games, but only Florida Atlantic’s Nicholas Boyd has made at least three 3-pointers against San Diego State in the tournament. And if you want an example of how much head coach Brian Dutcher is willing to sell out defensively against an opponent’s deadly 3-point shooter, Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman made a 3-pointer in 47 consecutive games. Still, his one 3-point basket and four attempts against the Aztecs were tied for his second-worst performance in the previous 12 games. Thus, we expect San Diego State to make Hawkins a focal point of their defense on Monday night.

Matt Bradley to Win Most Outstanding Player (+1000)

We want to cover ourselves with some wager on San Diego State if the underdog Aztecs win the championship. There is not much better out there while predicting an Aztec victory than Matt Bradley’s +1000 MOP odds.

Bradley led the team in scoring the last two seasons and is the only Aztec player this year averaging double figures (12.7 points per game). The First Team All-Mountain West guard entered the Sweet 16 matchup against Alabama 11th in scoring among all active players. He scored six points against the Crimson Tide after being limited to just 19 minutes because of early foul trouble. He followed up a poor two-point performance in the Elite Eight against Creighton with a team-high 21 points in the biggest game of the year against Florida Atlantic. Bradley was 5-of-12 from the field but was assertive in his drives and got to the foul line nine times, the most free throws he attempted all season.

UConn’s defensive philosophy plays right into what San Diego State is comfortable with offensively. UConn is elite in rim protection (eighth in near-proximity field goal percentage allowed, per Haslametrics), while the Aztecs shoot mid-range jumpers at a top-15 rate nationally.

If San Diego State does pull the upset, Bradley will likely be a big reason why, which makes his +1000 MOP odds more enticing than San Diego State’s +290 moneyline odds.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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