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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Big 12 Tournament (2024)

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With the Big 12 expanding this year and adding Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF, the new look conference did not disappoint in its inaugural year.

Houston took down the regular season conference in impressive fashion, quieting the haters. The other Cougars team (BYU) held serve, finishing as the five-seed in the conference and a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Even UCF, despite finishing as a 12-seed in the conference, had some impressive wins, including one over the mighty Kansas Jayhawks. It was an awesome year to be a fan of the Big 12.

Let’s start by taking a look at the current odds for the Big 12 Tournament beginning Tuesday.

College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Big 12 Tournament (2024)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Favorite: Houston (-135) 

Houston is obviously a heavy favorite, and rightfully so. With the best-adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, the Cougars are riding a nine-game winning streak into the conference tournament. They play with a physicality that feels like six defenders at once, combined with solid guard play; it makes sense why the odds sit where they do.

Still, I can’t advise backing Houston as a good bet. Ranking 361st in the away-from-home metric, the Cougars are a completely different team when not playing at the Fertitta Center. An example is on the road in Kansas, where they lost by double digits. Flip the script, and they dominated the Jayhawks.

It’s a small sample size, but in neutral court games earlier this year, Houston struggled against teams like Xavier, who they should have dominated. Houston also lost the American Conference tournament last year despite being an even heavier favorite. My simple point is that it makes sense why Houston is such a big favorite, but it’s not worth betting on them to win the tournament. 

The Value: Kansas (+1200)

It isn’t every day you get Kansas at such odds in the Big 12 Tournament. Despite the worst Big 12 season under Bill Self, this is still a dangerous team with a reasonable path to the finals. Assuming they get past West Virginia or Cincinnati, they split with Baylor in the regular season. The Bears depend a lot on the three-ball, so in their first tourney game on a neutral court, there’s a good chance Baylor doesn’t shoot well and stalls. When Kansas lost to Iowa State, the Cyclones almost shot 50% from deep, making 14 threes.

Of course, the elephant in the room is Hunter Dickinson’s injury status. Right now, I can’t say it’s looking great, but that’s why the value is so fantastic. With a couple of days to heal, I am deciding to be optimistic. There is a big risk-reward aspect here, but with Bill Self’s tenure and the brand that he has built, you could see them making a run, couldn’t you?

The Dark Horse: Texas (+3000)

Texas has had a lot of back-and-forth this year, going 6-4 over their final 10 games. They took Houston into overtime, competed with Iowa State and have the talent to compete in neutral games. Max Abmas is a delight to watch, and Dylan Disu can score from anywhere on the court. 

Now, this team has flaws, but they’re playing relatively well of late. When they fell by five to Iowa State, Texas only shot 21% from beyond the arc. They split with Baylor and are generally fun to watch. This is a team I will at the very least be rooting for this tournament.

My Bets

Generally, this is a tournament I’m fading. I reasonably could see seven different teams winning this conference tournament. While I expect Houston to win, I am not confident enough to bet them as an odds-on favorite. Bart Torvik gives Kansas a 5.5% chance of winning the tournament (fourth-best) and Texas a 3.2% chance (sixth-best), so I don’t hate the betting odds. I’m just excited to watch.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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