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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Big Ten Tournament (2024)

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Is the 2024 Big Ten Tournament merely a formality? Maybe we should really be calling this slate of games taking place in Minneapolis “The Purdue Invitational.”

Purdue has been head and shoulders better than the entire conference for the second-straight year. And yes, it helps that Zach Edey is literally head and shoulders taller than everyone in Purdue’s way.

The question heading into this Big Ten Tournament is whether anyone can step up against the Boilermakers. Yes, Purdue is the class of the conference. But are they worth a bet at even-money to cut down the nets at the Target Center?

Here’s a full breakdown of the 2024 Big Ten Tournament.

2024 Big Ten Tournament Preview & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Tournament Odds 

Below is the full list of odds for the Big Ten Tournament and a look at the bracket.

Can Any of the Bottom-Four Seeds Stage a Run?

In last year’s Big Ten Tournament, two double-digit seeds reached the semifinals. Ohio State, the 13th seed, won three games in three days, while Penn State, the 10th seed, made it all the way to the finals. Both teams saw their runs ended by - you guessed it - Purdue.

The question is whether we could see another big run from a desperate team playing to keep its season alive. It’s certainly possible, given how wide-open the conference was all season. Still, I think there’s only one team truly capable of going on a run that starts on Wednesday.

That team? The Maryland Terrapins.

The Terps do one thing especially well and that’s defend. Maryland ranks 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik. That actually ranks third in the conference. While Maryland’s overall offense is dismal (second-worst in the Big Ten in adjusted offensive efficiency), the Terps have a star in Jahmir Young, who finished third in the conference in scoring and can carry the team when they need a bucket. Maryland also has an accomplished coach in Kevin Willard, someone I can trust in the underdog role.

Now, of course, Maryland has plenty of flaws. They’ve underachieved all year and finished 12th in the conference for several reasons. They cannot shoot the ball and are susceptible to turning it over. They finished the regular season losing eight of their final 10 games, but it’s worth noting that only one of those losses came by double digits. So, the Terps have been competitive in their fair share of games.

I also like Maryland’s path to potentially making some noise. It starts with beating a Rutgers team that’s almost a carbon copy of themselves, although they are even more atrocious offensively (they are 300th nationally). A second-round matchup against a reeling Wisconsin team doesn’t scare me, especially considering the Badgers only beat the Terps by four at home not long ago.

Should Maryland get past Wisconsin, a date with a really banged-up Northwestern squad would be next. This pipe dream run would probably end at the hands of Purdue in the semifinals, but at that point, with a 60/1 ticket, there’d be opportunities to hedge.

Maryland definitely isn’t my pick to win the Big Ten Tournament. But in a conference filled with parity, they could be the surprise story heading into the weekend.

Boilermakers Get a Favorable Draw to the Finals

Purdue has to be pretty happy with its half of the bracket. They’ll first face the winner of Minnesota-Michigan State. The Gophers were one of the best teams against the spread this season, but they’ve fallen off a cliff over the last month. Meanwhile, Michigan State continues to be one of the most puzzling teams in the country and one I refuse to back at 10/1 odds.

From there, the Boilermakers would most likely draw Wisconsin or Northwestern. The Badgers and Wildcats are other Big Ten teams that have faded down the stretch. Northwestern has given the Boilermakers trouble this season and actually beat them at Welsh-Ryan Arena way back in December. Still, the Wildcats struggled mightily with Edey’s size in both games, and the absence of Ty Berry definitely takes some air out of this team’s overall upside.

Purdue is listed at even-money for a reason, and they couldn’t have asked for a much better draw to the tournament final. There’s no harm in taking them at these odds, although their price isn’t all that exciting. 

There's Value To Be Had in the Bottom Half of the Bracket

I won’t criticize anyone who wants to take the even-money proposition with Purdue. But for the value hunters out there, I think there are two teams worth targeting in the bottom half of the bracket.

No, Illinois is not one of them. The Illini are as good as anyone at putting the ball in the basket. In fact, Torvik ranks them as the nation’s best offense over the last 10 games. The problem is Illinois also ranks 151st defensively during that same span. This makes them awfully hard to trust if their shots aren’t falling and they can’t get out and run in transition. The Illini deserve consideration, but I don’t love their 3/1 price.

Plus, I’m more interested in taking a stab at a long shot who would face Illinois in the quarterfinals. That’s right, I’m willing to take a flyer on Ohio State at 35/1. 

Since firing coach Chris Holtmann, the Buckeyes have shown serious signs of life, going 5-1 with impressive wins over Purdue, Michigan State and Nebraska. This recent run is no fluke, either, as Ohio State ranks 33rd nationally by Torvik over its last 10 games.

The first step for OSU will be beating an Iowa team that defeated them by two in Iowa City at the start of February. The Buckeyes match up decently with the Hawkeyes. They should be able to win the board battle on both ends and find plenty of avenues to score against an Iowa defense that’s been awfully generous both inside and along the perimeter. Iowa also shot 26-of-43 on two-point attempts in the game, which feels fluky considering the Buckeyes rank 38th nationally in 2-point defense on the year.

From there, OSU would have to take out the Illini, which feels feasible given the team’s current form. As noted, the Illini love to get out and run in transition, with star Terrance Shannon Jr. leading the way. The Buckeyes are capable of preventing the Illini from turning the game into a run-and-gun. According to Hoop Math, OSU ranks 294th in tempo and posted the second-lowest percentage of field goal attempts in transition in the country.

In other words, the Buckeyes typically don’t let teams run on them. And if they can force Illinois to operate out of the half-court, they’ll have a chance to pull off the upset. And should they get past Illinois, I’ll take my chances from there with opportunities to hedge.

The other team I’ve got my eye on is Nebraska at 7/1. The Huskers have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the nation, and they are legitimate. Nebraska has a balanced offense but can go nuclear from three at any moment.

I also like Nebraska’s path to the final. They’ll most likely see Indiana in the quarterfinals. And while the Hoosiers have perked up as of late, I’m not convinced they’ve suddenly figured things out. Plus, the Hoosiers are terrible at both shooting and defending the three, two prerequisites for taking down the Huskers. And if Michigan or Penn State somehow squeaks past the Hoosiers, even better.

The Huskers are also capable of keeping up with Illinois in a shootout. But most importantly, the Huskers are also elite in transition defense, ranking third in percentage of total transition field goal attempts allowed. If we get a Nebraska-Ohio State semifinal, then we simply tip our caps.

Best Bets & Prediction

Maybe I should’ve titled this article “Best Bets for the Team Who Will Lose To Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament Final.” That thought definitely crossed my mind at various points while writing this preview.

Still, my main point is that we can still find ways to profit even if our chosen tickets don’t actually win the Big Ten Tournament. The goal here is to find teams with decent odds at the bottom of the bracket that’ll give us opportunities to hedge down the line.

The two teams I’m targeting with that goal in mind are Nebraska and Ohio State. Both teams are playing great ball down the stretch and have the antidote to stopping the biggest threat in their half of the bracket, the Illinois transition offense. These teams also already have victories over Purdue, giving them even more potential value.

Bets: Nebraska (7/1), Ohio State (35/1) & Maryland (60/1)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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