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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/19)

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If one looked at the scores among top 25 teams from this past week, they would likely assume that there were plenty of upsets, as four ranked teams (TCU, Baylor, Utah State, and Ole Miss) all lost to unranked teams. However, the interesting thing is that all were road underdogs in those games, which makes the trend of unranked teams at home being favored over ranked teams a trend to watch.

The only true upsets of the week thus far have No. 11 Wisconsin losing 87-83 as 5.5-point favorites at Penn State on Tuesday, and South Florida knocking off No. 10 Memphis on the road yesterday. The Badgers also happen to be the only AP top 25 team in action on a 16-game Friday college basketball slate. We analyze Wisconsin’s game against Indiana, and also preview arguably the most premier matchup of the day involving two Mountain West teams.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Friday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Indiana @ Wisconsin (-11) | O/U 142.5 (-110/-110) 

Wisconsin had been 5-0 in Big Ten play before its latest loss to Penn State, and while the results may have shocked some, perhaps oddsmakers tipped their hand that a letdown was coming, as the Badgers were only 5.5-point favorites against a Nittany Lions team that was under .500 (8-9) coming into the game.

The positives to take away for Wisconsin were that it shot 48.3% from the field, including making 43.8% of its 3-point attempts. In addition, the Badgers out-rebounded the Nittany Lions 36-25 and shot a whopping 23 free throws to Penn State’s 20. Wisconsin will not lose many games going forward with those numbers, especially now at home, where it has won its three league games by nearly 12 points per game.

The Badgers defense allowed an uncharacteristic 1.23 points per possession against Penn State, and one could argue there was a bit of luck involved in that, as the Nittany Lions’ Kanye Clary and D’Marco Dunn were two of the team’s only players shooting better than 34% from beyond the arc, and they were a combined 0-for-3 from deep, while Ace Baldwin and Zach Hicks stepped up to make a combined 7-of-12 3-pointers. Wisconsin will not have to worry much about Indiana lighting it up from the perimeter, as the Hoosiers shoot lower than 34% as a team from 3-point range, and rank in the bottom 20 of the country in percentage of points they get (21.2%) from beyond the arc.

Wisconsin’s Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl are a formidable frontline that can compete with Indiana’s Kel’el Ware down low, and the Badgers do not allow second-chance points as the fifth-best defensive rebounding team in the country. The Badgers will look for revenge for a 63-45 beat-down Indiana handed them at Assembly Hall last year, and they should get it in a big way, as they are 5-1 ATS in Big Ten games this season, while the Hoosiers are just 4-10-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season.

Bet: Wisconsin -11 (-110)

UNLV @ Colorado State (-7)| O/U 145 (-105/-115)

Colorado State has averaged an uncharacteristically low 67.5 points per game in regulation of its four Mountain West games thus far (the Rams’ 78-point output against Air Force was skewed by the overtime period), but if there is any offense we are unconcerned about fixing itself it is Niko Medved’s five-out offense. The Rams still ranks 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, a metric they have been ranked inside the top 60 in for three of the previous four years under Medved. Boise State held Colorado State to a season-low 58 points two games ago, but the Rams attempted just 10 free throws and shot 25% (4-of-16) from 3-point range. Few teams have the positional size at the guard and wing positions as the Broncos do, so we expect the Rams to get back on track offensively at home, led by point guard Isaiah Stevens, who ranks sixth nationally in assist rate.

This is a tough situational spot for UNLV, who is coming off a grueling one-point home loss to Utah State and a resounding bounce-back four-point road win at Boise State within the last week. That should make for some tired legs in the altitude of Colorado, and compromise a defense that is the worst rebounding team in the league, and also ranks seventh in conference play in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3-point percentage allowed.

The Over is a profitable 9-5 in UNLV’s 14 games this season, including cashing at an 83.3% clip (5-1) following a win.

Bet: Over 145 (-105)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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