Navigate

College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/26)

by |

There may only be eight games on Friday’s college basketball slate, but a mammoth Big Ten matchup between Michigan State and Wisconsin sets the stage for what is a perfect appetizer for a loaded weekend of games. Following a 2-1 day with our picks yesterday, we preview that Big Ten rivalry, and also give our best bet on an A-10 battle between two teams that desperately need a league win.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Friday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-2.5) | O/U 137.5 (-108/-112) 

Michigan State looked like a team in peril, going 9-7 through its first 16 games and losing four of its first five Big Ten contests. However, in true Tom Izzo fashion, he has the Spartans rounding into peak form, winning three straight games to even their record at 4-4 in the league, with those three victories coming by an average of 10 points per game.

The Spartans’ winning streak in large part is due to a solid defensive effort, as they have held their last three opponents (Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland) to an average of 60 points per game. However, two of those three teams rank in the bottom two of the league in scoring for the season, which makes Michigan State’s defensive success in league play (top four in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3-point percentage allowed) overvalued.

Michigan State entered its game against Illinois two weeks ago allowing 0.53 points per possession in ball screen action, which ranked in the 98th percentile at the time, per Synergy. However, while Wisconsin’s ball-screen rates have doubled from last season, we expect the Badgers to utilize more of their offensive game plans from years past, with swing concepts and post feeds to attack Michigan State inside.

Wisconsin ranks sixth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and in Big Ten play, is making the highest percentage of 3-point attempts (41.9%), 2-point attempts (54.5%) and free throws (81.4%) of any team in the league. The Over has cashed in seven of Wisconsin’s nine games as home favorites this season, and this line is too low given Michigan State’s defensive success against inferior opponents.

Bet: Over 137.5 (-108)

Saint Joseph’s @ St. Bonaventure (-2.5)| O/U 144 (-105/-115)

St. Bonaventure is an underwhelming 2-4 in A-10 play so far, but it also has been the victim of poor scheduling, as four of those six games have come on the road. The Bonnies are averaging 86.5 points per game in their two home league games and 59.5 points per game in four road A-10 contests, so it is a good thing that this game is played in the friendly confines of the Reilly Center.

St. Bonaventure has lost four of five games, and scored 0.92 and 0.75 points per possession, respectively, in its last two losses. The Bonnies want to play through 6-foot-10 Chad Venning in the post as much as possible, and while he was just held to a season-low six points in the last game against Duquesne, he should be able to get back to his double-digit scoring (he averaged 16.7 points per game in the six games prior) against a Hawks defense that ranks ninth in the conference in 2-point percentage allowed in league play.

Saint Joseph’s has won three consecutive games, but is just 1-3 in its last four road games, with the only victory being a 78-77 win at UMass, a game in which the Minutemen won the rebounding battle by seven and had a 13-point second-half lead in at one point.

St. Bonaventure has covered the spread in 15 of its 23 home games (65.2%) dating back to last season, and the oldest team in the country in terms of average years of D-I experience who also ranks 31st in minutes continuity from a year ago should be able to muster a cover against a Hawks team that has struggled on the road of late.

Bet: St. Bonaventure -2.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App