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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/5)

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Friday’s college basketball slate may only be comprised of 10 games, but it still serves as the perfect appetizer for a loaded weekend, headlined by an AP top-nine matchup between Illinois and Purdue. We offer our best prediction for that Big Ten matchup and analyze the only other game on the slate involving a Power 6 conference, as Butler hosts No .4 UConn at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Friday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UConn (-6.5) at Butler | O/U 144.5 (-110/-110) 

After coasting by Georgetown in its Big East opener, Butler has lost consecutive road games to Providence and St. John’s by double digits. However, before we analyze why the Bulldogs should be forgiven for their 10-point overtime loss to the Friars, it is important to understand the context in which they played the game.

Butler dug itself into a deep hole in the first half, trailing 15-0, which one would suspect had much to do with its compromised travel. However, the Bulldogs valiantly fought back and were within seconds of stealing a road victory against a now-ranked team, but the Friars hit a game-tying 3-pointer with two seconds left to force overtime.

Even though he was likely not 100%, Butler shooting guard DJ Davis still scored 22 points in 39 gutsy minutes, and he has now scored 12-plus points in five consecutive games. The Bulldogs are used to taking tough shots, as they entered the Providence game with a 21% low-quality shot rate per shot quality. However, they still impressively scored 75 points on a Friars defense that was ranked in the first percentile in catch-and-shoot rate allowed, as Providence typically makes teams beat them one-on-one. That bodes well for Butler’s chances of success against UConn. We do not expect the Bulldogs to be bullied on the glass like they were against St. John’s (they were out-rebounded 43-32), despite UConn ranking 10th in offensive rebounding rate, as the now-injured Donovan Clingan had much to do with that success on the glass.

UConn was held to an average of 64.5 points in consecutive games against Seton Hall and St. John’s, as Clingan played a combined 14 minutes in those matchups. His 7-foot-2 frame draws a lot of attention from defenses, and without his presence, teams can challenge the Huskies’ perimeter shooters much more.

Butler has covered just 30.4% (7-16-1 ATS) of its Big East games since the start of last season, compared to 70% (14-6-1 ATS) of its non-conference games. However, it is still 12-10-1 ATS at home overall in that span, and we expect it to play well in its first post-holiday home game, especially since it will not have travel issues to deal with.

Pick: Butler +6.5 (-110)

Illinois at Purdue (-10.5)| O/U 154 (-110/-110)

Illinois has played two games without leading scorer Terrance Shannon Jr. (21.7 points per game) after he was suspended indefinitely over rape charges. The Fighting Illini have not missed a beat, going 2-0 and covering the spread in those games by an average of 16 points. However, those games were against a Fairleigh Dickinson team that is nothing like the Cinderella of this past year’s NCAA tournament and a Northwestern team that was picked to finish eighth in the Big Ten preseason poll and who also has lost at home to Chicago State this year. Thus, a trip to Mackey Arena to face a No. 1-ranked Purdue squad is a much taller task.

Purdue is one of five teams in the country with four Quad 1 wins but one of just three with no such losses in that stretch. In the Boilermakers’ past game against a top-10 opponent, they torched Arizona for 61% shooting from 2-point range and made 10 of 24 3-point shots (41.7%), as the Wildcats surrendered an unusually high unguarded jump shot rate.

Purdue exploited Arizona’s drop coverage on pick-and-rolls so much to the point where head coach Tommy Lloyd had no choice but to switch to zone, and outside of Caleb Love going off for 29 points, Purdue did not have much issues with defending the Wildcats’ athletic guards. That will bode well in Purdue’s chances of success against Illinois’ Marcus Domask, who went off for 32 points (his second game scoring 30 or more this season) against Northwestern in Shannon’s absence. And the fact that Illinois’ defense turns opponents over at the 344th-lowest rate (13.8% of the time) is a death sentence against an offense as efficient as Purdue’s (second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency).

Illinois went 4-1-1 ATS as a road ‘dog last year, but the loss of Shannon will eventually catch up with the Fighting Illini, and they are going up against one of the most profitable ATS teams in the country this season, as Purdue is 9-3-2 ATS in its 14 games this year.

Pick: Purdue -10.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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