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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/15)

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This week was unusually slow in college basketball, as many programs scheduled lightly because of final exams. Those teams that did play had to be leery of quieter than usual home-court advantages, as most students around the country are home on holiday break already. That lack of a home-court advantage seemed to do Northwestern in on Wednesday night, as it lost outright as a 23.5-point favorite to Chicago State. Now the Wildcats have to wonder how much the stain of the loss will overshadow its impressive victory over then-No. 1 Purdue come Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, Creighton was the other AP top 25 team to fall this week, though its 79-64 loss was on the road at UNLV.

We have another small 13-game Friday college basketball slate, but only nine are between two Division I opponents. We are treated to a colossal top-10 non-conference matchup between UConn and Gonzaga, and we give our best prediction for that game as well as one involving two West Coast teams.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Friday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UConn (-5) @ Gonzaga | O/U 149.5 (-110/-110) 

UConn is coming to the end of a murderous non-conference stretch in which it played at Kansas, faced UNC at Madison Square Garden, and now this cross-country trip to Seattle in a span of four games.

The Huskies may have the 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan manning the paint, but they rank outside the top 150 in the lowest percentage of near proximity attempts allowed, per Haslametrics. One school of thought is that they do not mind funneling ball-handlers into Clingan’s elite shot-blocking ability, but the other is that they do not have the most fleet-footed defenders to prevent dribble penetration. That is an issue when dealing with the Bulldogs backcourt tandem of Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman. Even if UConn does a good job walling off the paint against Nembhard, we expect some positive shooting regression from the point guard, who has made just 19.4% of his 3-point attempts a year after connecting on 35.6% of his shots from deep.

We see another path to success for Gonzaga offensively with whoever Clingan is assigned to guard, between Graham Ike and Anton Watson, being able to stretch the floor and take Clingan out to the perimeter. Both Gonzaga big men have at least 10 3-point attempts on the season, and each has connected on 38.9% or better of their perimeter shots.

Conversely, UConn should have too much size for Gonzaga to contend with on the interior, and the Huskies look to improve upon their D-I leading 64.2% 2-point shooting percentage. Plus, a UConn offense that ranks fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency will only continue to improve with extended minutes from Stephon Castle, whose minutes have increased in back-to-back games.

The Over is 9-3 when Gonzaga is at a rest disadvantage compared to its opponents since the start of 2022 and has cashed in six of 11 games against ranked opponents in that span. In addition, the Over is 5-3-1 in UConn’s nine games as favorites this season and has cashed in 60% of its games (nine of 15) against ranked opponents since the start of last season as well. We are especially confident in this, considering ShotQuality projects UConn to win 77.6-74.5.

Pick: Over 149.5 (-110)

Portland State (-1) @ San Diego | O/U 152 (-110/-110)

Portland State has some rust to shake off in this game, as it has not played a D-I opponent since December 2, with its last two games coming against Lewis & Clark and George Fox. However, the Vikings have been impressive in their biggest games this season, namely an 82-76 road win against UC Santa Barbara, in which they forced 18 turnovers and a 25% turnover rate and held the Gauchos to .36 points per possession in ball-screen situations. Meanwhile, San Diego’s defense is not pressuring opponents at nearly the same rate as last year, and even if it did, the Vikings have excellent ball security with a top-20 turnover rate (14%) this season.

If this turns into a battle of free throws late, a significant edge goes to San Diego, who shoots free throws at a 76.2% clip compared to 68.7% from Portland State. However, the Vikings have excellent defensive discipline with a 342nd-ranked average defensive possession length, and they will make the Toreros work for everything they get offensively.

Portland State is a perfect 4-0 on the road this season, and we expect it to get its fifth straight road cover.

Pick: Portland State -1 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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