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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/22)

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Friday’s college basketball slate resembles more of what we are accustomed to seeing on the weekend, as 10 AP top 25 teams are in action one last time before Christmas. The action tips off as early as 11:00 a.m. ET, with the first ranked team taking the floor at 1:00 p.m., as No. 20 James Madison visits Morgan State. Thus, be sure to get your bets in early and enjoy the rare daytime college basketball weekday action.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Friday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Vermont (-7.5) @ Miami (OH) | O/U 139 (-110/-110) 

Vermont ended a two-game losing streak in a big way on Wednesday, beating Toledo on the road by 26 points. Toledo had not lost a game by double-digits this season, and it was its worst loss since a 30-point road loss against Buffalo in 2019. The most impressive part about Vermont’s victory was its defensive dominance, as Rush the Other 26 explained:

Miami (OH) has shot over 40% from 3-point range this season (ranks 11th nationally). Still, in its past three losses, it has been run off the three-point line for just 12 attempts against Ohio State or limited to 32% (9-of-28) by a Davidson team not known for its perimeter defense. We expect that shooting regression to continue against Vermont, and the Catamounts’ 3-point shooting of its own should be Miami’s demise. Vermont shoots threes at a top-25 frequency and hits those shots at a top-80 clip.

We are not concerned about Vermont having just played two days ago, as since the start of the 2021 season, it is 10-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

Pick: Vermont -7.5 (-110)

Maryland @ UCLA (-3.5) | O/U 129.5 (-110/-110)

It is not Christmas yet, but the UCLA basketball program may already have reached its season-low in Tuesday’s 76-72 loss to Cal State Northridge, a team that had not won a game against a Power 6 opponent since 2012.

UCLA held the Matadors to 29.4% shooting from beyond the arc but was dominated inside, with 34 of its 76 points allowed coming from inside the paint. However, the most disappointing thing for the Bruins offense was that the Matadors’ physicality bullied it into 19 turnovers and did not take advantage of Cal State Northridge’s 31 fouls, going just 23-for-35 (65.7%) at the foul line.

Both Maryland and UCLA are comfortable playing slow tempos (each ranks 269th or lower in adjusted tempo), and both rank 282nd or worse in effective field goal percentage. The Terrapins have averaged just 54.7 points per game in three games against Power 6 competition this season, while UCLA has averaged 62.5 points in four games against top-28 KenPom teams (all losses).

The Under has cashed in eight of UCLA’s 10 games this season and is 9-1 in Maryland’s 10 games as road underdogs since the start of last season. We especially expect Mick Cronin’s team to play with a chip on its shoulder after this week’s embarrassing loss, leading to another defensive struggle.

Pick: Under 129.5 (-110)

Illinois (-6.5) @ Missouri | O/U 149.5 (-110/-110)

Though this is not a true road game for Illinois, Missouri should get plenty of support playing in St. Louis. In addition, the Tigers’ style of play should give Illinois fits, leading to what should be a closer game than the experts predict.

Marquette is the only opponent Illinois has seen consistent extended pressure from this season, and the Golden Eagles held the Fighting Illini to 35% shooting from the floor and a season-low 0.93 points per possession. Meanwhile, Missouri tends to struggle when other teams are physical with its guards, but that is not Illinois’s staple, as the Fighting Illini rank 341st in the country with a 13.8% turnover forced rate. Illinois does a tremendous job of using its length to wall off the paint and protect the rim (it ranks second nationally, allowing 40.4% shooting inside the arc), but the Tigers prefer to bomb away from the perimeter, with the 28th-highest percentage of their points (38.3%) coming from 3-point range.

Missouri is undervalued as it comes off consecutive losses to Kansas and Seton Hall. However, the latter just earned a statement win against UConn, and the Tigers have been an impressive 8-3 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of last season.

Pick: Missouri +6.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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