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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/29)

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Nine AP top 25 teams are in action on a much more loaded Friday college basketball slate than usual. That includes four of the country’s top nine teams, specifically with Purdue looking to solidify its claim as the No. 1 team. Elsewhere, No. 4 Arizona looks to rebound from its second loss of the season, a 96-95 double-overtime thriller against Florida Atlantic when it faces California on the road in its Pac-12 opener.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Friday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

McNeese State at Michigan (-10) | O/U 145.5 (-110/-110) 

McNeese State stormed back from a 13-point deficit with a little over 10 minutes to play in its past game to earn a huge 74-72 home victory over in-state rival Louisiana. The most impressive part of the Cowboys’ latest victory was they won despite getting just eight minutes from CJ Felder in his first game action of the season, as Felder’s presence allows McNeese to extend its zone pressure with his rebounding and rim-protecting presence. In addition, the team is expected to have added depth with the likely debut of Utah transfer Mike Saunders, who appeared in warmups with the team last game. At full strength, the Cowboys are widely considered one of the most talented mid-major teams, and several college basketball pundits have taken to X to gush over their expectations.

McNeese has already won road games at VCU and UAB, and its 3-point prowess (the Cowboys rank fifth nationally, shooting 41.0% from 3-point range) should keep it in the game against a Michigan defense that allows opponents to shoot better than 35% from deep. In addition, the Cowboys figure to take excellent care of the basketball (they have the sixth-best turnover rate), and with positive regression from the charity stripe (they shoot free throws at a 62.1% clip), they have what it takes to pull an upset in what should be a less-than hostile environment in Ann Arbor with students not yet back from Christmas break.

Pick: McNeese State +10 (-110)

San Diego State @ Gonzaga (-6.5)| O/U 145.5 (-110/-110)

Gonzaga has been nearly unbeatable at home in the Mark Few era, winning 112 of its previous 115 home games since 2016. However, this Bulldogs team does not have the same flair of invincibility as those that came before them, and they are not as dominant of a favorite to win the West Coast Conference regular season title as they have been in the past, with just -210 odds at DraftKings.

The Bulldogs rank in the top 26 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but their struggles stem from the inconsistency of point guard Ryan Nembhard, who has three or more turnovers in five of the last nine games. Teams have been able to sag off of him and limit his dribble penetration, as he has missed his previous eight 3-point attempts. Thus, Gonzaga does not figure to get much offense from beyond the arc against an Aztecs defense that holds opponents to 29% shooting from deep (ranks in the top 36 nationally). San Diego State should not be overwhelmed by the environment, having played consecutive road games against two schools, UC San Diego and Grand Canyon, who treated the rare visit from the Mountain West power as their Super Bowl.

While San Diego State is in the bottom 10% of the country in transition defense efficiency, Gonzaga’s fast-break attack is not as potent as it has been in the past. In addition, the Aztecs entered their loss against Grand Canyon ranking in the 96th percentile in open jump shot rate, per Synergy, and their efficient mid-range game should hum against a Bulldogs defense that does not turn opponents over at a high rate (16.5% turnover rate ranks 246th in the country). The Aztecs are a profitable 16-14 ATS as underdogs in the Brian Dutcher era (since 2018), and we expect them to cover the spread again in this matchup.

Pick: San Diego State +6.5 (-110)

Fairleigh Dickinson @ Illinois (-27.5) | O/U 162.5 (-110/-110) 

Fairleigh Dickinson sent shock waves throughout college basketball this past season, becoming just the second No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. However, Tobin Anderson’s defense turned opponents over at a top-40 rate this past season, and this year’s Knights squad under Jack Castleberry ranks outside the top 200 in that metric. In fact, Fairleigh Dickinson ranks 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage defense, offensive rebounding rate allowed, and 2-point shooting percentage defense. That spells trouble when facing an Illinois offense that ranks 21st in adjusted efficiency and rebounds its own misses at a top-30 rate. In addition, per Evan Miyakawa, Illinois’ lineup of Domask/Guerrier/Hawkins/Rodgers/Shannon ranks third in the country in adjusted efficiency margin. Shannon has been suspended after he was arrested on charges of rape, but there is still plenty to like about the Illini supporting cast.

Quincy Guerrier has averaged 21.7 points over his last three games after scoring in single digits in five of the first eight, and Coleman Hawkins has scored 12-plus points in each of the previous three after being held to single digits in his first five. Thus, this offense is much more than the shot-creating of Shannon. The Illini should be able to name their score against an FDU defense that has allowed 91 or more points in four of seven losses this season.

Pick: Illinois -27.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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