Navigate

College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (2/9)

by |

The weekend is loaded with several highly anticipated college basketball matchups, with Gonzaga heading to Rupp Arena to take on Kentucky in a rare late-season non-conference tilt, and Kansas hosting Baylor in a potential Big 12 Championship preview, to name a few. The excitement of the weekend left just three Division I games on the slate for Friday night, but two of those involved ranked teams, and we preview both of those games from the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Friday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Dayton (-1.5) @ VCU | O/U 135.5 (-108/-112) 

After starting the season 3-2 heading into Thanksgiving weekend, Dayton has played some of the best basketball in the country, winning 16 of its last 17 games. However, while the Flyers are 4-1 on the road in conference play and are coming off their biggest road win, a 94-79 victory at St. Joseph’s, we are selling high after that performance given their historical dominance of the Hawks under head coach Anthony Grant.

Despite winning by 15 points, one could argue that Dayton’s victory over St. Joseph’s could be ridiculed given that it allowed 1.08 points per possession, the first time it allowed more than one point per possession in seven head-to-head meetings with the Billy Lange-led Hawks. Dayton’s defense entered that game with a top 15 near shot denial rate, per Haslametrics, essentially forcing teams to beat it with jump shots. However, that is an area where VCU excels, making an A-10 best 40.1% of its 3-point attempts in league play. In addition, the Flyers have been susceptible to quick guards who are adept at penetrating, and the Rams’ aggressive backcourt of Jason Nelson and wing Max Shulga are big reasons that they rank in the top 60 nationally in percentage of points coming from the free-throw line, where they shoot 78.5% (ninth in D-I) as a team.

The Siegel Center is one of the toughest environments for road teams, and VCU has been one of the most profitable ATS teams in the country, going 22-9 ATS in A-10 games since the start of last season. Meanwhile, Dayton is 24-23 ATS as a favorite in that span, and we expect VCU to cover for the eighth time in its last nine games overall.

Bet: VCU +1.5 (-115)

San Diego State @ Nevada (-2)| O/U 140.5 (-112/-108)

Nevada’s season looked like it was spiraling out of control after losing four of five games following a 15-1 start. However, the Wolf Pack have turned their season around with three wins in the last four games, and most surprisingly walked out with a 77-63 road win at Utah State in an electric Dee Glen Smith Spectrum atmosphere.

Nevada looks to avenge a 71-59 road loss to San Diego State, which was the second game of a three-game losing streak towards the start of Mountain West play. In that game, the Aztecs out-rebounded the Wolf Pack 44-25 and attempted double the amount of free throws (34 to 17). However, we expect the home whistle to work more in Nevada’s favor in this rematch, and it can build on the fact that it shot 60.7% from 2-point range (17-of-28), as San Diego State struggled to contend with the size of 6-foot-6 guard Kenan Blackshear. Blackshear shot 6-of-11 from inside the arc, and many of his seven assists came out of post-up situations against smaller guards where the Aztecs were forced to send a double team.

All things considered, Nevada failed to cover the first matchup as 6.5-point underdogs, as it shot 26.1% from 3-point range (6-for-23) and made just seven of 17 free throw attempts. We expect a much better shooting day from a Wolf Pack offense that ranks second in Mountain West play with a 36.9% team 3-point shooting percentage. And we expect them to get to the free throw line much more frequently in this game, as they attempt free throws on 42.2% of their field goal attempts, which leads the conference.

Nevada has covered three of its last four games and is 2-1 ATS against ranked opponents this year, while San Diego State is just 2-7 ATS on the road this year compared to a 6-3 ATS record at home.

Bet: Nevada -2 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App