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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (1/15)

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Martin Luther King Jr. Day affords college basketball fans plenty of opportunities to watch and wager on daytime games, as slightly less than half of the 31 games played today are in the afternoon window. The action starts early with one of the best rivalries in college sports as Michigan hosts Ohio State, and continues with a solid slate of Ivy League games, as well as action from the Big East and Big Ten.

Read on for Monday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Monday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Villanova at Marquette (-6) | O/U 143 (-110/-110) 

Much of Villanova’s success in the Jay Wright era had to do with the litany of solid point guards he had, and in the case of the 2016 national Championship Team, he was able to play two (Ryan Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson) on the floor at the same time. However, much of the struggles in the first two seasons under Kyle Neptune has been the lack of solid point guard play, and this stingy Marquette team should exploit that weakness.

Wildcats sophomore guard Mark Armstrong has scored 14 or more points in back-to-back games, but those came against St. John’s and DePaul, who each rank in the bottom four of the Big East in scoring defense. However, today Armstrong faces a Marquette defense that ranks in the top five (67.3 points per game allowed) and one that menaces opponents into turnovers at the sixth-highest rate in Division I.

Armstrong scored nine total points in two regular season meetings as a freshman against Marquette last year. His 21.9 turnover rate compared to a 14.1 assist rate this season, per KenPom, means that head coach Kyle Neptune could limit his minutes in favor of the more veteran TJ Bamba, but that also sacrifices some shot creation and perimeter ball movement. 

Villanova has been held to 72 or fewer points in all five losses this season, and we look for it to slow the tempo down to a snail’s pace (the Wildcats rank 306th in adjusted tempo) to give it the best chance to compete on the road against a Marquette team that tied the all-time Big East record for most consecutive home wins earlier this season. 

Pick: Villanova team total Under 68.5 (-115)

Dartmouth @ Princeton (-18)| O/U 135 (-110/-110)

When Princeton covered a 13-point spread in an 89-58 blowout win over Harvard in its last game, it improved Ivy League double-digit home favorites to just 35-61 ATS in the last decade. There are theories that Ivy League games tend to not end in lopsided decisions often because of the familiarity between the coaches. However, even though Dave McLaughlin has been head coach of Dartmouth since 2017, his familiarity with Mitch Henderson’s scheme at Princeton (head coach of the Tigers since 2012) will not overcome the talent gap that exists between these teams.

Princeton’s only loss of the season is a four-point loss to Saint Joseph’s, a game which it led by nine points. The Tigers’ five-out offense that is shooting 3-pointers at the sixth-highest rate in the country is giving opposing defenses fits, and also frees up driving lanes, where Princeton has capitalized to the tune of the seventh-highest 2-point shooting percentage 59.6%, in the country. 

Dartmouth lost by three points in overtime at Jadwin last season and beat the Tigers on its home floor, but the Big Green ranks 314th in D-I experience, which is unusual for an Ivy League squad, and that youth will present issues in this road clash. 

Caesars and bet365 are the only two sportsbooks offering a line as low as -18.5 at the standard -110 juice, as FanDuel charges -120 to back the favorites at that number.

Pick: Princeton -18 (-112)

Chicago State @ Stetson (-10)| O/U 139 (-115/-105)

Chicago State seemed on the verge of a special season and looked ready to win more than 11 games for the first time since 2014, especially after a 75-73 road upset of Northwestern spurred a four-game winning streak that brought its record to 7-9. However, the Cougars followed that up with six losses in their next seven games, and something turned in the DePaul game after the Blue Demons switched to a 2-3 zone after falling behind early, which exposed a big weakness in Chicago State’s offense. 

Chicago State’s preferred style of offense is to spread teams out and identify mismatches to create one-on-one opportunities. The Cougars get 22.7% of their points from the free-throw line (top 36 in the country) and 26.6% of their points from 3-point range (273rd-worst), so one can impose their will defensively on them by turning them into a mere jump-shooting team. Chicago State also ranks 316th in assists per field goals made, and Stetson should pull away late, as it is the nation’s best free-throw shooting team (82.6%). 

This is a three-star play, as Stetson has covered 75% of its home games (9-3-1 ATS) since the start of last season, and is 26-14-2 ATS overall in that span. FanDuel is the only other one of our top sportsbooks offering a line of -9.5 (all others are at -10), but it is juiced to -120, unlike BetMGM.

Pick: Stetson -10 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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