College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (12/16)

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We are coming off a loaded weekend of college basketball action where two AP top-eight teams lost (Marquette and Gonzaga), and where the No. 1 team in the country, Tennessee, needed a buzzer-beater to beat Illinois on the road.

Monday’s college basketball slate is rather light with just 18 games on tap, and only 12 involving two teams from Division I. Nevertheless, we have scoured the data to make our two best bets of the day.

For a detailed breakdown of Monday’s matchups, keep reading for our college basketball best bets and top picks for Monday, December 16.

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    Monday's Best College Basketball Bets

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Wofford (+6.5) @ Charleston (-6.5) | O/U 147 (-110/-110) 

    Wofford has not played well at all relative to its preseason expectations. The Terriers were picked to finish fourth in the Southern Conference preseason poll, but have struggled to a 4-6 start and have yet to win a true road game. But I am not faulting Wofford considering the schedule it has played thus far. Schematically, Charleston is a much better opponent for the Terriers.

    Wofford went 1-2 in the Cream City Challenge, as it played several opponents who press at a high rate and play at a frenetic pace. While Charleston ranks 61st in adjusted tempo, it does not full-court press at the rate the Terriers have seen of late, which should make this more of a half-court affair.

    Wofford can take advantage of Charleston’s poor defense in transition (it spends the 10th-fewest amount of time on defense per possession) and at the rim (it ranks 260th in two-point percentage allowed). Entering its last game against St. Joe’s, it had allowed the highest points per possession on dribble handoffs in the country, per Synergy.

    This is a sell-high spot on Charleston after its road upset of St. Joe’s. This game could be the start of Wofford playing like it was expected to in the preseason with two All-Conference players (Kyler Filewich and Corey Tripp) leading the way.

    Pick: Wofford +6.5 (-112)

    The Citadel (+3.5) @ Central Arkansas (-3.5) | O/U 139.5 (-112/-108) 

    Central Arkansas has a quick turnaround after playing on Saturday against Arkansas, facing a Citadel team that has allowed more than 81 points per game in its last three games against Division I competition.

    Entering its last game, The Citadel ranked in the 99th percentile in drive-and-kick offense, per Hoop-Explorer, and in catch-and-shoot rate, per Synergy. The Bulldogs’ offense is still viewed as a work in progress as their efficiency was in the teens in both metrics, but they are still a tough prep for a team on short rest.

    Meanwhile, The Citadel also had a 20% or higher turnover rate in every Division I game except the Stetson game, including a 21.9% turnover rate in its last game against Campbell. Before that game, the Bulldogs were allowing points off steals at a top-25 rate, so there should be a path to easy offense for the Bears.

    The over has cashed in each of Central Arkansas’ two home games and as favorites. It also cashed in The Citadel’s only game this season where it had the rest advantage.

    Pick: Over 139.5 Points (-112)

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.