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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (3/4)

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Starting next week, college basketball action will be exclusively postseason play, as an intense week of conference tournaments will give way to the NCAA tournament. However, we get a small glimpse of what that postseason play will look like, as the ASUN tournament kicks off with first round games between Queens and Florida Gulf Coast, and Jacksonville and Kennesaw State. We preview one of those win-or-go-home games, as well as an under the radar Big Sky tilt that we will likely be on the contrarian side of.

Read on for Monday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Monday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Queens vs. Florida Gulf Coast (-4) | O/U 154 (-110/-110) 

In its first season at the D-I level last year, Queens defeated Florida Gulf Coast 61-55 in the first round of the conference tournament. The Royals are now 3-1 in the last two years against the Eagles, and we expect a similar result (or at least a cover) to last year’s conference tournament victory.

In a day and age where so many teams are reliant on shot creators off the dribble, Queens has one of the fewest shot rates off the dribble of any team in the country. The Royals play at the fastest tempo in league play, and that makes them a bad matchup for an Eagles squad that plays at a top-25 slowest pace in the country.

Florida Gulf Coast won three straight to end the regular season, and while Queens’ only loss in the last four games was to the Eagles, the Royals still scored a respectable 1.14 points per possession, and got to the free-throw line 25 times. Queens has the highest free-throw rate in league play, and foul trouble could again be an issue for an Eagles squad that ranks outside the top 170 nationally in bench minutes.

Queens is 10-5-1 ATS in ASUN play this season, while Florida Gulf Coast has covered just one of its five conference tournament games since 2020. The Royals should be able to build off the momentum of scoring 52 first-half points in their last game against Kennesaw State, the most they have scored in a first half in league play this season. If Queens can get the game at its tempo, it has a great chance at a road upset, considering it is 8-4 SU when it scores 80-plus points this season.

Bet: Queens +4.5 (-110)

Weber State (-2.5) @ Montana State | O/U 144 (-110/-110)

Recent performance should suggest Weber State is the right side in this matchup, given that it has won eight of its last nine, while Montana State is 2-6 in its last eight and has not strung together consecutive wins since late January. However, we are buying into the “Senior Night” factor in Bozeman as the Bobcats send off their backcourt in Eddie Turner and Robert Ford, and an electric atmosphere on national television (the game is aired on ESPNU) should make all the difference in this rematch.

Weber State opened up a nine-point halftime lead in the first meeting between these teams, then outscored the Bobcats by 13 in the second half for an easy 22-point victory. The Wildcats had their way on the backboards in the first game, out-rebounding Montana State 42-26 and assisting on 16 of 28 field goals. However, the Bobcats played a clean game overall with just nine turnovers, and their league-best turnover rate defensively (they force a turnover on 19.2% of possessions in Big Sky play) and 3-point percentage defense (33.2% allowed) should allow them to stay close.

The Bobcats are 11-6 ATS in 17 conference games and have covered half their games (2-2) as home underdogs, while Weber State is just 7-12 ATS as favorites and covered just five of its 13 road games.

Bet: Montana State +2.5 (-105)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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