Well, we finally made it, a Saturday of hoops that are to die for. We get Gonzaga-UConn, Tennessee-Illinois, Texas A&M-Purdue and a plethora of other matchups that make it feel like Christmas came early.
It's been a bit of a difficult season to predict game by game so far. With all the moving pieces in the transfer portal era and so many big names playing for a paycheck in the NIL era, there is even more to consider when making wagers. Still, we march forward, as every day gives us more and more data to become sharper. Let's jump right in.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets
Last Article: 2-4 | Season (Articles): 7-8 | Season (Overall): 31-29
Marquette vs. Dayton
Location: University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, OH
Line: Marquette -1.5 | Total: 150.5
This game has teeter-tottered back and forth across the center, so I once again want to emphasize shopping around for the best odds. After Tyler Kolek left Marquette, questions lingered as to who would step up and lead this Golden Eagles squad on the court. Kam Jones has quickly put those questions to bed. Currently second in the John R. Wooden Award odds, Jones has done it all on both sides of the ball. His backcourt running mate Stevie Mitchell can score from anywhere on the court while David Koplin and Ben Gold are brick walls down low.
For Dayton, they battled against Iowa State and UNC but fell short in the Maui Invitational. Then they dominated UConn with four different scorers in double digits including Posh Alexander off the bench. The Flyers are propelled by their offense with Enoch Cheeks as their leading scorer and rebounder. But anyone can take over any given night like Malachi Smith, Nate Santos or Zed Key, which makes this team so dangerous.
I usually bang the drum on home-court advantage but Marquette has been consistent anywhere they play. They beat a tough Maryland team on the road and while their one loss was away from Milwaukee against Iowa State, they handled Gonzaga in their only neutral-court contest of the season. Not only is Marquette's defense consistent but their scoring is, too. I'm not sure who's going to stop their front court as Dayton's near-proximity defense ranks outside the top 300 in Division 1 (DI). Stevie Mitchell has the highest percentage of looks coming near the rim, per Hoop-Math, so if you're looking for props to bet, go with his overs.
I don't see how this sub-70-ranked Dayton defense keeps up with such a disciplined Marquette offense. The Golden Eagles won't turn the ball over and should far outpace Dayton in terms of shot opportunity. Since this game is a toss-up, it's easy to go with the side that will get more chances at scoring, and simply put, the better team.
Prediction: Marquette 76, Dayton 70
Best Bet: Marquette -1 (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tennessee vs. Illinois
Location: State Farm Center – Champaign, IL
Line: Tennessee -1.5 | Total: 146.5
The Volunteers come into Urbana-Champaign in what should be an electrifying game. Tennessee looks to maintain its No. 1 overall ranking in the AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll. Illinois looks to dethrone them and build on their already tough schedule.
Tennessee is known for its defense, without a doubt. But we'll get there in a second. What's surprising is their top-10 ranked offense across the major analytical sites. They've shot at the highest clip in basketball inside the arc. While Zakai Zeigler has continued to improve offensively and defensively, Chaz Lanier has been a shining star for the Vols. The North Florida transfer not only is their leading scorer but is one of the most consistent perimeter shooters in the nation, going 7-of-10 in their 15-point win against Baylor last month. Even when they don't hit, they are still hauling in misses at a 40% clip, the 11th-highest in the nation.
Defensively, Tennessee continues to dominate, a staple under Rick Barnes, allowing limited scoring from deep while forcing opponents deep into the shot clock. Illinois has their work cut out for them.
The Illini have done well this season on the backs of forcing awkward, inefficient looks out of its opponents. But when that happens, Illinois’ perimeter and mid-range defense both rank in the top 10 among DI teams. European newcomers Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic have raised the floor of Brad Underwood's squad. They've also raised the height with the sixth-tallest average height among all teams, which is why they are a top-15 defensive rebounding team.
I see this game coming down to the final minute. Both squads have impressive numbers but I expect defense to win out above all. Illinois will be the toughest defensive opponent Tennessee has faced all year by a lot. The top team so far, Virginia, is 42nd in KenPom defensive efficiency while the Illini come in at 16th. Despite Illinois’ impressive shooting so far, I expect it to regress a bit in a hostile environment. It's a toss-up as to the winner but I'm comfortable riding the under.
Prediction: Illinois 70, Tennessee 69
Best Bet: Under 147.5 Points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Gonzaga vs. UConn
Location: Madison Square Garden – New York, NY
Line: Gonzaga -3.0 | Total: 151.5
Shout out to Mark Few for the non-con schedule he's put together because it has been entertaining, to say the least, when following Gonzaga. Today is no different as the Bulldogs line up against back-to-back champion UConn Huskies in Madison Square Garden. There are many storylines to this game but one that stands out is how this is a rematch of the Elite 8 match from 2023 when the Huskies routed Gonzaga. There will for sure be at least a minor revenge narrative at play.
But these are two different squads now. Graham Ike in his second year as a Zag has been on fire, scoring 28 points last time out against Kentucky where he seemingly couldn't miss. He's only failed to reach double-digit points in two of Gonzaga's games. Khalif Battle has slotted in well after transferring from Arkansas. Braden Huff has evolved his game and Ryan Nembhard continues to be an excellent facilitator with the third-highest assist rate among all DI players.
Connecticut is still finding its way after losing Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle as the main cast of the championship squad a year ago. Alex Karaban has been awesome with the 20th-highest offensive rating among all players and Tarris Reed has been a monster on the glass with the fifth-highest offensive rebound rate in the nation. Despite their three losses, this is still a high-quality squad under Dan Hurley.
For tonight's matchup, the most intriguing battle will be down low. Ike and Huff are the two highest-usage Zags but UConn still boasts the third-best near-proximity defense while limiting second-chance conversions at the best rate in the country. Luckily for Gonzaga, not only does Ike draw fouls at the highest rate in all of basketball but Uconn fouls at a high clip. In their loss to Memphis, the Tigers attempted 40 free throws. Against Dayton, that number was 30 - the Flyers made 27 of them. Gonzaga will get a lot of free points unless something drastically changes.
Connecticut has the 29th-highest rim-and-three rate but go against a Bulldogs team ranked second in perimeter defense and will force the game down low. Around the hoop, UConn has the advantage offensively but Gonzaga will limit any transition game and rebounds at a top-20 rate defensively.
I expect Few to test UConn's discipline early and attack them down low. Dan Hurley's squad is not as deep as he's used to, so getting Reed or some of their heavy hitters in foul trouble early can be an effective strategy for Gonzaga. If that doesn't work, the Bulldogs can fall back on their perimeter offense. UConn has allowed opponents to shoot a 37% clip from deep this year.
In all, there are more avenues for Gonzaga to pull away here. UConn has been one of the most inconsistent teams so far this year, ranking 315th in Haslametrics consistency metrics and 356th in the away-from-home metric. Technically it's a semi-home game for the Huskies but I still trust Gonzaga to pull away.
Prediction: Gonzaga 77, UConn 70
Best Bet: Gonzaga -2 (-110 on Caesers Sportsbook)
Additional Bets to Consider
- Purdue-Texas A&M Under 143.5 Points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Xavier (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
