College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (12/28)
Welcome to a Saturday slate of college basketball. I hope you are having a great holiday season and enjoyed some time off from college basketball betting. It's been a bit of a difficult season to predict game by game so far. With all the moving pieces in the transfer portal era and so many big names playing for a paycheck in the NIL era, there is even more to consider when making wagers. Still, we continue on, as every day gives us more and more data to become sharper as we turn the page to 2025. Let's jump right in.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets
Last Article: 4-4 | Season (Articles): 13-15 | Season (Overall): 43-42
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Location: Intuit Dome – Inglewood, CA
Line: Gonzaga -4.0 | Total: 147.5
It feels like I've covered UCLA every week this season but with all their marquee games it makes sense. They are coming off a loss after leading by 16 in the second half and only scoring 13 points in the final 10 minutes to UNC but have otherwise been near perfect. Their defense is a top-five unit with the highest rate of turnovers forced in the nation.
Gonzaga meanwhile has been a top-five offensive unit while taking care of the ball, scoring at will down low and stingy with an elite perimeter defense. This will be quite the contrast of styles and should make for a great watch.
I'm most interested to see how Mick Cronin offensively schemes against Gonzaga's defense. The Bruins are not exactly analytically sound, ranking 336th in rim-and-three rate while taking mid-range looks at a 10 percent higher clip than the average DI team. Doing this against Gonzaga might be a little tough with the Bulldogs top-25-ranked mid-range defense. Down low is a different story. UCLA is a top-30 unit at scoring near the hoop, while Gonzaga's defense at the rim ranks 292nd. If the Bruins force the issue down low more, they should be in business.
But UCLA will have another problem in how they stop Gonzaga's offense. No team UCLA has faced this year takes care of the ball better than Gonzaga. Even the three teams ranking in the top-75 at offensive turnover rate, UCLA went 1-2 against. Gonzaga has one of the best field goal rates in the nation and you can't say the same about any other UCLA opponent. The Bruins should limit Gonzaga on the glass enough but I also don't trust them to stay out of foul trouble, giving some free points to Mark Few's squad with an 81 percent free throw shooting percentage.
Given Gonzaga's consistency and my lack of trusting UCLA's 60th offensive efficiency rank, I'm laying the points here with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga is already significantly more battle-tested in this matchup and I just don't expect UCLA to score enough to keep up.
Prediction: Gonzaga 75, UCLA 68
Best Bet: Gonzaga -3.5 (-115 BetMGM)
Ole Miss vs. Memphis
Location: FedExForum – Memphis, TN
Line: Memphis -1.5 | Total: 153
Besides UCLA-Gonzaga there isn't much excitement on today's slate. But it's still college basketball between two projected tournament teams so despite the analytics not loving either team too much this still makes for a solid matchup.
Memphis has one of the more interesting resumes in college basketball. Wins over UConn, Michigan State, and Clemson on the road are highlights while a loss to Arkansas State in the FedExForum is a bit of a question. PJ Haggerty has been awesome in his sophomore season and Dain Dainja has slotted in well after transferring from Illinois. Dainja combined with Moussa Cisse and Nicholas Jourdain make for a menacing frontcourt with a high block rate and solid interior and mid-range defense.
Offensively is a bit of a different issue. While they've shot 40 percent from deep this year, they turn the ball over at an alarming clip and don't have much of an offense inside the arc. Their transition offense will be mitigated by Ole Miss allowing the fewest points to come off steals. Mississippi also forces the sixth-most turnovers which will be concerning for the Tigers who turn the ball over 20 percent of possessions.
Ole Miss offensively takes care of the ball at the best rate in the nation. That's what stands out in this game. Mississippi has an 11th-ranked field goal rate while Memphis offensively ranks 321st. In terms of pure opportunity, Mississippi will struggle with getting shots up. Ole Miss almost performs better on the road and their ability to score from beyond the arc and force turnovers is a recipe for success, despite playing in Memphis.
Prediction: Ole Miss 75, Memphis 71
Best Bet: Ole Miss +1.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Other Bets:
San Diego State-Utah State Under 145 (-110 Caesers)
Wyoming +7.5 vs. Nevada (-110 BetMGM)
Pacific +22.5 vs. Saint Mary's (-110 on FanDuel)