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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/11)

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In the last two days, the AP No. 1, 2, 3, and 5 teams have lost, with only No. 4 UConn making it through this week unscathed, so far. In addition to those upsets, the No. 9, 11, 17, 18, and 21 teams also had lost by the end of Wednesday. And of the eight ranked teams to lose to unranked teams this week, No. 11 Marquette was the only team to do so at home, so bettors should be leery of ranked road teams for the foreseeable future.

With three more ranked teams in action tonight, are more upsets on the horizon?

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Florida Atlantic (-7) at Tulane | O/U 162 (-108/-112) 

Florida Atlantic has not covered the spread in three consecutive games and has lost outright as 17.5-point favorites to Florida Gulf Coast and as eight-point favorites to Charlotte in that span. However, we expect a big bounceback from the Owls tonight, against a Tulane defense they should score at will against.

Florida Atlantic ranks 18th or better in effective field goal percentage and adjusted offensive efficiency, while Tulane ranks 207th or worse in those categories. The Green Wave also allows the 18th-highest percentage of their points by way of the 3-pointer, so Florida Atlantic has a great chance to improve upon its 36.6% team 3-point percentage. The Owls have five players that shoot 35.8% or better from 3-point range, so Tulane will not be able to key in defensively on any one player.

We also expect Florida Atlantic’s Vlad Goldin to be a one-man wrecking crew defensively in the paint, as Tulane’s fourth-ranked offense in terms of 2-point shooting percentage (61.1%) has not seen many players as big or physically imposing as the 7-foot-1 Goldin.

Tulane is just 1-4 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of 2021, and we do not expect them to cover tonight.

Pick: Florida Atlantic -7 (-110)

Michigan at Maryland (-6) | O/U 140 (-112/-108)

The Michigan Wolverines won the College Football National Championship, but that still did not keep Wolverines basketball fans from voicing their displeasure with head coach Juwan Howard after his decision to let assistant Phil Martelli coach the team in their game in Philadelphia.

Michigan has now lost four consecutive games, and despite just one of them coming by more than six points, we cannot help but feel the wheels are coming off for the Wolverines. KenPom sees this game as a 71-69 Maryland victory, but his analytics likely do not account for the suspension of Wolverines guard Dug McDaniel, who will not be allowed to travel with the team for the next six road games. McDaniel’s loss cannot be understated, as he leads the team in scoring (17.8 points per game) and assists (5.1 per game), and is second in steals (1.0 per game).

Without McDaniel’s shot-creating, the Wolverines will likely not be able to sustain their 37.6% 3-point shooting (30th in the country), which is one of the only things they have going for them. However, a lot of that damage was done in non-conference action, as the Wolverines are shooting 32.1% from deep in Big Ten games (11th in the conference). Thus, we expect the Terrapins to notch their first cover of the season in conference play (they are 0-4 ATS in Big Ten games to this point).

Pick: Maryland -6 (-110)

UCLA at Utah (-8) | O/U 137 (-110/-110)

UCLA has lost three consecutive games, all in Pac-12 play, and has not scored 60 points in any of them. Mick Cronin’s bunch refuses to play up-tempo (327th in adjusted tempo), in large part because it wants to minimize possessions and rely upon a defense that ranks 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That is a sound strategy when the team ranks outside the top 323 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting.

UCLA does not allow teams to initiate early offense, ranking in the top 12 in the longest average amount of time spent on defense per defensive possession. In addition, the Bruins have the size to match up with Utah’s mammoth frontcourt of 7-foot Branden Carlson and 7-foot-1 Lawson Lovering off the bench. Utah point guard Deivon Smith has a 16:4 assist-to-turnover ratio in the six games played since he has been eligible, and his presence makes the Utes’ backcourt instantly more athletic. However, we must factor in that this is the first game of the Pac-12 weekend slate (with follow-up games on Saturday or Sunday), so rested legs should make for tougher defense.

The Under is 6-1-1 in UCLA’s eight games following a loss this season, and we expect another defensive struggle tonight.  

Pick: Under 137 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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