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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/18)

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We figured to be in store for a big shakeup in the college basketball AP poll with all the upsets that happened last week, and that is exactly what we got. UConn was the only top five team who was not victim of an upset last week, and was voted No. 1 in this week’s AP poll for the first time since 2009, receiving 39 of the 63 first-place votes. The Huskies looked every bit the part of the top-ranked team in the country in their tidy 62-48 win over Creighton last night. Meanwhile, Gonzaga fell out of the top 25 for the first time in 143 weeks (a span of eight years) and gets its first chance at redemption tonight on the road against Pepperdine.

Which trio of picks are we most confident in today?

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Minnesota at Michigan State (-11) | O/U 142.5 (-110/-110) 

Michigan State is just 1-2 in its last three games, ending a mini two-game losing streak with a convincing 18-point home win over Rutgers. The Spartans have now won five straight home games by 12-plus points (including two Big Ten games) and until we see more consistency from them on the road, we will continue to buy into their success at the Breslin Center.

While Michigan State is a solid 8-3 ATS in 11 home games this year, we are buying more into the Under which has cashed in five of its seven games when it has had 2-3 days off. That applies here with the Spartans’ last game coming on Sunday, and they are a great matchup for a Minnesota offense that loves to play through its bigs, as forwards Dawson Garcia and Joshua Ola-Joseph are the team’s two leading scorers, and the biggest reason the Golden Gophers rank in the top 11 nationally in 2-point shooting (57.9%). Michigan State allows opponents to shoot just 45.4% (37th in the country) from inside the arc, and head coach Tom Izzo’s physical frontcourt is a big reason the Spartans rank in the top 27 in block percentage and effective field goal percentage defense.

Michigan State nearly knocked off Illinois on the road two games ago (a 71-68 defeat) in large part because it entered that game allowing .53 points per possession (98th percentile) in ball screen defense. Thus, we expect the Golden Gophers to find it difficult to get any offense going against a Spartans defense that has allowed an average of 58 points per game in their last two Big Ten home games, making Minnesota’s team total Under the best angle in this game.

Pick: Minnesota team total Under 65.5 (-110)

UMass Lowell (-1.5) at Albany | O/U 154.5 (-110/-110)

UMass Lowell won 26 games a year ago and was one win away against Vermont in the America East Conference Championship from punching its ticket to the Big Dance. However, even that talented squad could not beat Albany on the road (losing 66-50), and Pat Duquette’s teams are 5-7 SU against Albany since 2018.

UMass Lowell is amid a five-game winning streak, but has not beaten a team ranked inside KenPom’s top 216 in that stretch. The River Hawks also have two disappointing losses to Merrimack and Central Connecticut, going a combined 7-for-30 from 3-point range and committing 32 turnovers in those defeats. That is the key to an Albany upset tonight, as it defends the 3-point line at the eighth-best rate in the country (27.6%), which improves to an even better 25% when just analyzing the two conference games. In addition, we expect Albany’s 21st-ranked tempo to force UMass Lowell to play outside of its comfort zone, and to wear down a thin River Hawks bench that ranks 324th in bench minutes (24%).

Albany is 4-1 ATS at home this season while UMass Lowell has covered just 50% of its conference games versus 63.6% of its non-conference games since the start of last season.

Pick: Albany +1.5 (-110)

Illinois (-3) at Michigan | O/U 153 (-112/-108)

Illinois is just 3-2 SU since then-leading scorer Terrance Shannon was suspended from the team, and its latest game was the most head-scratching, a 76-67 home loss to Maryland. While the Fighting Illini rank 140th in bench minutes (33.5%), that number figures to plummet, as Brad Underwood has been playing his smaller “death lineup” more, and the team used a seven-man rotation with just one sub playing over 10 minutes against the Terrapins. However, Underwood is no dope as that is by far his best offensive lineup and has resulted in more minutes for Marcus Domask on the ball, who has responded with 26-plus points in three of the last four games. His shot creating and spacing with perimeter shooters around him has led the Fighting Illini to the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in Big Ten play.

While Illinois uses its drop coverage to stymy Big Ten opponents inside the arc (the Fighting Illini have allowed a league-best 42.9% from 2-point range in Big Ten play), Michigan has the players to routinely make mid-range jump shots to beat it. It is also worth mentioning that while Wolverines leading scorer Dug McDaniel is suspended for the next few road games, he is eligible to play at home tonight. He had four assists to one turnover in 47 minutes in a double-overtime loss to Illinois last year, and should build on that success in leading Michigan’s offense tonight.

The Over is 6-2 in Illinois’ last eight games with 2-3 days off this season, and has cashed in four of Michigan’s five games as an underdog.

Pick: Over 153 (-112)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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