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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/25)

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Entering Tuesday, the college basketball season had already seen 22 AP top 10 teams lose road games to unranked opponents, which was the most before February in AP poll history. Then, South Carolina added to that total with a dominating 79-62 victory over a Kentucky team that was averaging better than 91 points per game, and was the Gamecock’s largest win in school history against a top 10 team (it was also their second-largest win ever against the Wildcats).

What kind of action are we in for on Thursday’s loaded college basketball slate?

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Vermont at UMass Lowell (-1) | O/U 139 (-110/-110) 

UMass Lowell and Vermont look on a collision course to meet again in the America East Conference Championship, which would be a rematch of Vermont’s 72-59 triumph last year. However, the River Hawks got the best of the Catamounts on their home floor in the regular season, cruising to an 80-65 victory (they led by 23 early in the second half) after out-rebounding the Catamounts 40-26 and shooting 59.1% from 3-point range. We expect UMass Lowell to have similar success on its home floor in this matchup, despite not covering any of its four home games this season.

The River Hawks enter on a seven-game winning streak, which includes five straight league wins by an average of 12 points per game. They face a Vermont team that has endured three of its four losses on the road this season, and unconvincingly won its first two home league games by a combined 12 points.

We give UMass Lowell the edge in this matchup thanks to its stifling perimeter defense, as it allows opponents to shoot just 26.7% from beyond the arc, the second-lowest percentage in the country. That should help limit Vermont’s offensive ceiling, as the Catamounts are making an America East-best 37.9% from beyond the arc in league play. We are also encouraged that UMass Lowell has Abdoul Karim Coulibaly back in the lineup for the last four games after going 6-3 SU in his nine-game absence. Even though Coulibaly has played 16 or fewer minutes in each  game back, his interior presence allows the River Hawks defense to extend even more on the perimeter, as he finished last season ranked second in the conference in blocked shot percentage.

Pick: UMass Lowell -1 (-110)

Stonehill at LIU (-1) | O/U 140 (-110/-110)

LIU is just 2-3 in conference play, and those two NEC wins are its only two victories in the last 12 games. However, one of those victories was a 73-68 road win at Stonehill on January 6, in which the Sharks attempted six more free throws and won the rebounding battle 47-32.

LIU squandered a golden opportunity to knock off the preseason conference favorites in its last game, as it trailed Central Connecticut State by one point with four minutes to play. The Sharks did an excellent job defensively on projected first-team All-Conference forward Kellen Amos, limiting him to just four points on 1-of-10 shooting.

Stonehill is the only team in the NEC to rank worse than LIU in adjusted offensive efficiency, and while the Skyhawks have the best perimeter defense in league play, allowing 27.1% from beyond the arc, the Sharks still found other ways to win their first matchup despite making six of 23 3-point attempts. Stonehill has not stopped 70 points in regulation in any of its six league games to this point, and we cannot back a team who has just one win against D-I competition this year.

Pick: LIU -1 (-110)

San Francisco at Gonzaga (-10) | O/U 151 (-110/-110)

San Francisco is undervalued in this matchup after coming off a surprising 77-60 home loss to Saint Mary’s on Saturday, a game in which it was a one-point favorite. In hindsight, perhaps we should have expected a Gaels win, as head coach Randy Bennett had a whole week to prepare for the Dons, while San Francisco had played just two days prior. That rest disadvantage, coupled with Saint Mary’s effective drop coverage taking away the paint for San Francisco are large reasons why it was simply a bad matchup for the Dons, and why we expect them to be more competitive in this matchup.

San Francisco is a rim-reliant offense, shooting at a top-10 rate inside the arc (58.3%) and getting 54.9% of its points from 2-point range (67th-most in the country). While Gonzaga has the 22nd-ranked 2-point defense in the country and ranks as the WCC’s best defense in league play in terms of effective field goal percentage allowed, it is not like its defense is impenetrable, as it ranks fifth in the conference in percentage of opponents’ points coming from 2-point range (51.3%, up from 50.9% for the entire season).

While Gonzaga is an impressive 84-2 SU at the Kennel since the start of 2018, this Bulldogs team is not nearly close to the caliber of those teams in the past, and have covered just half of their eight home games this season. We trust the Dons to keep this game close, and cover for the 10th time in their last 17 league games dating back to last season.

Pick: San Francisco +10 (-108)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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