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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/4)

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College basketball is in high gear in the new year, with most teams beginning or amid league play and several others playing in true road environments for the first time all season.

Four AP top 25 teams are in action on Thursday, and one of them is No. 24 Gonzaga, who is hanging on to a streak of 142 consecutive weeks ranked in the AP poll (the Bulldogs have been ranked every week since Jan. 11, 2016). Gonzaga would surely exit the top 25 with a home loss to Pepperdine today or San Diego on Saturday, so it will be interesting to see how the Bulldogs fare.

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UNC Wilmington @ Drexel (-1.5) | O/U 138 (-110/-110) 

Like many mid-majors, UNC Wilmington has had to get used to life on the road early in the season, as just three of its first 12 games were played on its home court. The Seahawks should be well prepared for life in the Coastal Athletic Association after playing at Arkansas and earning a win at Rupp Arena against Kentucky.

UNCW has strong defensive rebounding numbers despite facing two SEC powers and actually outrebounded the Wildcats while pulling down 15 offensive rebounds against Arkansas. The Seahawks should get plenty of clean looks offensively against Drexel, as they rank third nationally in the lowest turnover percentage (12.3%). And Drexel, on paper, does not take advantage of UNCW’s biggest defensive weaknesses, as the Seahawks allow 34.4% from 3-point range, but the Dragons rank 313th nationally, shooting it at a 29.1% clip.

Drexel is given much credit for its Big 5 rivalry win over Villanova, but that was amid a funky stretch for the Wildcats when they lost three consecutive games. The Dragons lost both meetings with UNCW by a combined six points last year, and both teams rank in the top 21 in the country in minutes continuity from last year, so we are happy to grab the points with the underdogs in what should be a hotly contested game.

Pick: UNC Wilmington +1.5 (-108)

James Madison (-5.5) @ Louisiana | O/U 157 (-110/-110)

James Madison and Houston are the only two unbeaten teams left in the country, and that should not be so surprising, considering the Dukes are the seventh-oldest team in college basketball in terms of average D-I experience.

A lot of it has to do with strength of opponent, but Louisiana is a much better defensive team at home this season, allowing 62 points in each of its two home wins against D-I squads while allowing 77.2 points per game and going 1-5 in true road games to this point. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns’ lone 17-point road win at Rice two games ago should not go unnoticed. They held the Owls to 67 points and 34.5% from inside the arc, despite entering the game allowing 1.4 points per possession off cuts, and Rice had scored 1.4 points per possession on plays ending in a cut up to that point. That should bode well for Louisiana’s chances of defensive success against a JMU, especially if it can get the Dukes to play at its tempo (Louisiana ranks 279th in adjusted tempo while JMU is 36th).

JMU has won its last three road games by an average of 15.3 points, but this is Louisiana’s first game as a home underdog since 2020 (it went 2-0-1 as a home ‘dog that year), and is a profitable 10-2-1 ATS at home since the start of last season.

Pick: Louisiana +5.5 (-110)

Minnesota @ Michigan (-6.5) | O/U 151.5 (-112/-108)

Many will be down on Michigan’s prospectus going forward after last Friday’s 87-76 home loss to McNeese State. However, while we did not pick the Cowboys to win outright, we did discuss last week how uniquely talented of a mid-major they are and why we thought they would cover such a big spread. Thus, we do not take many negatives away from that loss for Michigan and expect it to rebound with a fury against a Minnesota team that lost by 10 in its only true road game of the season to Ohio State.

Michigan’s biggest negative defensively is its pick-and-roll coverage, but that is not Minnesota’s typical gameplan, as it would rather play through its frontcourt of Dawson Garcia and Joshua Ola-Joseph. Those are the only two Golden Gophers players that rank inside KenPom’s top 280 of offensive ratings for individual players, and considering Michigan ranks in the top 20 in the percentage of assists per field goals made defensively, we expect it to make Minnesota stagnant in the half court. That should also lead to some regression from Minnesota’s elite 3-point shooting to this point, as it has made better than 36% of shots from the perimeter (63rd nationally).

Michigan’s Dug McDaniel has averaged 17.7 points in wins this season, and this feels like a game where he will step up and take over against a Minnesota defense that was torched for 80 points in its two losses against teams inside KenPom’s top 60. The Wolverines are 13-9-1 ATS in Big Ten games since the start of last season, and we expect another strong effort off a two-game losing streak tonight.

Pick: Michigan -6.5 (-112)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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