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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/21)

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This week, college basketball has offered an exciting blend of some of the final top non-conference matchups for the rest of the regular season and several conference openers for top teams. While some teams have fallen victim this week to sleepy homecourt advantages with students away (i.e., Notre Dame losing to the Citadel, UCLA losing to Cal State Northridge, Villanova beating Creighton), other environments have propelled teams to big victories over ranked opponents, like Memphis and Providence beating Virginia and Marquette by a combined 38 points.

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kentucky (-13.5) @ Louisville | O/U 156 (-108/-112) 

Entering its matchup with North Carolina last Saturday, Kentucky was averaging a D-I best 0.5 points per possession on guarded catch and shoots, per Synergy. The Wildcats then scored 87 points against the Tar Heels while shooting 41.7% from the floor, which was much lower than their season average. This was largely because they got so much offense in transition and at the foul line, and Kentucky made 19 of 26 free throw attempts. Thus, teams that commit to slowing it down against Kentucky should have a better chance of success, with regression likely coming from the Wildcats on guarded jump shots. Louisville plays at a tempo outside the top-100 and can rattle Kentucky from the 3-point line, as the Cardinals allow opponents to shoot just 28.7% from deep (ranked 32nd).

On the other side, Kentucky is playing bigger lately with 7′ 1″ Aaron Bradshaw available for the last three games. Those three opponents have combined to shoot 83 3-pointers, with Bradshaw’s menacing presence looming in the paint. That is not something at which the Cardinals are particularly adept, as they rank outside the top-300, making just 29.4% of their 3-point attempts as a team; neither of their two leading scorers shoot better than 27.3% from beyond the arc. However, Kentucky is susceptible to dribble penetration, and the Cardinals attempt free throws at a top-25 rate, which is their path to keeping this game close. The Wildcats beat Louisville by 23 points in Kenny Payne’s first year as head coach last season, but we expect his squad to keep it closer at home this year, and Payne’s teams are 5-3 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of last season.

Pick: Louisville +13.5 (-110)

Colgate @ Iona (-1) | O/U 138.5 (-110/-110)

Colgate has finished four of the previous five seasons ranked seventh or better in 3-point accuracy, but this year’s Raiders squad is on pace to be the worst perimeter shooting team since Matt Langel’s 2013 squad. Colgate may rank outside the top-140 in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, but it is not like their players are any more aggressive driving to the basket, ranking 360th in free throw rate. Thus, while we would normally be worried about the under in a game where Colgate is facing a team that allows opponents to shoot better than 34% beyond the arc, as Iona has, Tobin Anderson’s squad will extend more full-court pressure than the Raiders have seen this year. This will disrupt their offense with a defense that forces turnovers at a top 26 rate.

To give an idea of how poorly Colgate has handled pressure in the past, it squandered a 54-30 second-half lead against Syracuse once the Orange started extending full court. Iona can frustrate the Raiders in similar ways, but we also do not expect the Gaels to light up the scoreboard themselves, as they have averaged just 64.3 points per game over the last six games.

The under has cashed in all four games that the Gaels have played following four or more days off, which applies here with their previous game being played last Saturday.

Pick: Under 138.5 (-110)

Saint Joseph’s @ Charleston

It could be said of many teams that they have yet to be challenged in true road environments, as they benefited from several home games or neutral site tournaments to begin the season. However, the same cannot be made of Saint Joseph’s, who took Kentucky to overtime at Rupp Arena and beat Villanova in their on-campus arena in a Big 5 rivalry game. In addition, the Hawks’ 74-70 home victory over Princeton will likely gain more clout as the season goes on, as it is also the Tigers’ only loss to date. All of this is to say that the Hawks have been much more battle-tested than a Charleston team that has played just one game against a KenPom top-60 team, not to mention the fact that they lost that game to FAU by 16 points.

St. Joe’s has given teams fits with its unique five-out offense, and they are on pace to finish in the top-40 in effective field goal percentage for the first time since 2014. Meanwhile, Charleston ranks outside the top-200 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed, and does not have the individual defenders to keep pace with the Hawks, especially since they have allowed an average of 80 points per game in its four losses.

St. Joe’s is one of the most profitable ATS teams this season (9-2), which has us backing it despite ShotQuality predicting a 78.6-72.2. Cougars victory.

Pick: Saint Joseph’s +2 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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