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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/28)

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College basketball slowly kicks back into high gear after the holidays, as a 22-game Thursday slate follows yesterday’s modest three-game slate. The day is dominated by four conference openers in the Big Sky and five in the Big West, but that is not the only West Coast action today, as there are also two Pac-12 openers between USC and Oregon, as well as UCLA and Oregon State.

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

USC at Oregon (-2.5) | O/U 148 (-110/-110) 

USC is just 1-2 ATS and SU in the three games that Bronny James has been active, as oddsmakers have taken advantage of the hype the team has gotten from adding a role player. While Oregon is dealing with a slew of injuries for the second consecutive season, it is 6-0 SU at home and has covered in five of those six. The Ducks have won three of the last four meetings in Eugene against USC, and all three wins came by nine-plus points, while the only loss in that span was by one in February 2022.

USC’s offense has been too isolation-dominant and reliant on Boogie Ellis’s shot creation, as he ranks in the top 130 in percentage of his team’s shots. However, Oregon possesses plenty of outstanding off-the-ball and on-ball defenders, which is why it allows the 49th-lowest assist per field goal made percentage (44.1%) in the country. Thus, while the Trojans will be used to playing isolation basketball if the Ducks force them to, it also has not produced positive results, as USC lost four of five games before feasting on an Alabama State team that ranks outside of KenPom’s top 300.

Oregon has covered 65.2% of its games as home favorites (15-8-1 ATS) since the start of last season, and we expect it to improve that mark in this conference opener at home against a Trojans team that has covered just three of seven games as road underdogs in that span.

Pick: Oregon -2.5 (-110)

Long Beach State (-2) @ Cal St. Fullerton | O/U 145 (-108/-112)

Long Beach State was picked to finish second in the Big West preseason poll largely because it returned over 75% of its scoring and rebounding and over 90% of its blocked shot production from last season. The Beach finished the non-conference portion of their schedule at 8-4, their best record since going 7-4 in the 2006-07 season in which they made the NCAA tournament. In addition, the last time Long Beach State won eight games in the non-conference was back in 1999-2000.

Rivalry games are always intense, and this game certainly classifies as a rivalry, as the Beach is one of three schools that Cal State Fullerton has played more than 100 times in program history. But Long Beach State is battle-tested on the road, with wins against three Power 6 schools (DePaul, Michigan, and USC), with their only two losses coming against Portland and San Diego State, last year’s national runner-up.

Long Beach State senior Marcus Tsohonis has come up big in the team’s biggest games, scoring 85 points in the three road wins against Power 6 teams. The Beach has balanced scoring with four players on pace to score 1,000 career points, and Cal State Fullerton will not have enough offense to keep up, as it ranks outside the top 300 in turnover percentage and effective field goal percentage. The Titans’ best plan will be to slow tempo, as they play at D-I’s 305th slowest tempo while Long Beach State plays at the 27th-quickest. However, Cal State Fullerton has not beaten a team inside KenPom’s top 200 this year, so we are siding with the more experienced team, albeit the road team, in this conference opener.

Pick: Long Beach State -2 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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