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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/15)

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Since the first week of December, at least one AP top 10 team has lost a road game to an unranked team, and we have already had two such instances of that this week, with No. 6 Kansas falling to Texas Tech 79-50 on Monday, and North Carolina losing to Syracuse 86-79 yesterday. There are no such instances of that trend tonight, but it will be interesting to see if the three ranked teams in action (No. 2 Purdue, No. 18 Saint Mary’s, and No. 24 Florida Atlantic) can all hold serve at home against three opponents who all do not have a winning record in conference play.

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Northwestern @ Rutgers (-3.5) | O/U 130.5 (-115/-105) 

Jersey Mike’s Area (formerly known as the RAC) is one of the most underrated and most challenging environments to play in in the Big Ten, and the Scarlet Knights have won 75.5% of their home games (37-12) since 2021, including an 8-1 SU record as home underdogs in that span. However, Rutgers has scored 60 or fewer points in three home losses this year, and if there is any team that will not be intimidating by the raucous atmosphere in New Jersey, it is Northwestern, who beat a much more talented Scarlet Knights team 65-53 on their home floor last year.

In last year’s road meeting, Northwestern overcame 17 turnovers and a poor shooting night from 3-point range (30.4% on 23 attempts) by limiting Rutgers to 0.77 points per possession and outrebounding the Scarlet Knights by six. That Rutgers squad had a lot more offensive firepower with Paul Mulcahy and Cam Spencer (now leading UConn in scoring at 15.3 points per game) in its backcourt. This year’s Rutgers squad is last in the Big Ten in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and 2-point shooting (41.2%). Northwestern returned 57.4% of its minutes from last season (58th in D-I) and is one of the 37 oldest teams in the country, so we expect it to go into Rutgers and take care of business, much as it did last year.

The Wildcats are 4-2 ATS in their last six games, and has not lost to a Big Ten team that was under .500 in league play entering Wednesday all season (the Scarlet Knights have a 5-7 league record).

Pick: Northwestern +3.5 (-110)

Fairleigh Dickinson (-4.5) @ LIU | O/U 153 (-110/-110)

LIU has won back-to-back games just once all season, when it was 2-0 in NEC play, and is in position to win consecutive games tonight after coming off a 75-58 victory over Sacred Heart. Not only was that LIU’s first conference win by more than five points this season, but it came against a Pioneers squad that is third in the NEC standings. However, even if this game against Fairleigh Dickinson is as close as the oddsmakers project, the Sharks are 4-1 SU in conference games decided by five or fewer points, and should be more comfortable in that setting than a Knights squad that is 0-2 SU in such games.

FDU won the first meeting between these teams 82-75 at home on February 1, as it had 20 assists on 29 made field goals and forced the Sharks into 18 turnovers. While turnovers have continued to plague LIU since, with an average of 17.5 turnovers per game in the last two games, the Sharks have gone 1-1 SU with an overtime loss despite that weakness, and has relied on a defense that has held their last two opponents to 20.6% from 3-point range (7-for-34). Another poor perimeter shooting performance could be FDU’s undoing in this matchup, as it attempts 3-pointers at the fourth-highest rate in league play, and shoots a league-worst 44.4% from inside the arc through 10 NEC games.

LIU has covered four straight games and five of its last six, while FDU has the troubling trend of covering just two of its eight games as road ‘dogs this season.

Pick: LIU +4.5 (-110)

Colorado (-1.5) @ UCLA | O/U 137.5 (-108/-112)

UCLA was left for dead after starting the season 6-10 and losing four of its first five Pac-12 games. Since then, the Bruins have played much better basketball, winning seven of eight, with the only loss in that span coming by six points in a road game against Arizona in which they had a 19-point first-half lead. Because they started so slow, the Bruins still do not have a compelling enough resume to be taken seriously as an NCAA tournament bubble team, but they have certainly turned heads with a top 21 ranking since January 12 in Torvik’s adjusted efficiency metrics and the ninth-most WAB (Wins Above Bubble).

The Bruins’ success is in large part a result of a commitment to the defensive end of the floor, as they have held their last eight opponents to an average of 64.3 points per game. UCLA grinds games to a halt with a bottom 25 tempo among all D-I teams, and ranks in the top two in the Pac-12 in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3-point percentage allowed (34.0%).

The two regular season meetings between these teams last year saw 122 and 116 points scored, and Colorado has not scored 70 points in its last two road games, though one of those games against Utah it played without Cody Williams (14.0 points per game). The Under is 7-3 when UCLA has had at least four days off, and we expect this to be the first of four games where the Under cashes when Colorado has been a road favorite.

Pick: Under 137.5 (-112)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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