College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/27)

by Mike Spector | @MikeSpector01|Feb 27, 2025

The calendar will turn to March this weekend, which means the best part of college basketball season is upon us. Which teams do we expect to be soaring and playing their best basketball heading into conference tournament action and beyond?

Continue reading for a detailed breakdown of our college basketball best bets and top picks for Thursday, February 27.

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Thursday's Best College Basketball Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

North Texas (-1.5) at Florida Atlantic (+1.5) | O/U 135.5 (-115/-105)

Momentum is clearly on the side of North Texas, who has won four straight games while Florida Atlantic has endured back-to-back losses by a combined 26 points. Even head-to-head results point to the Mean Green, as North Texas beat Florida Atlantic at home 77-64 on January 26. But oddsmakers likely have built all of that into this line, which has me backing the Owls as undervalued underdogs.

One thing that should eventually pay dividends for John Jakus’ defense at FAU is that they are more aggressive defending ball screens than Dusty May’s teams were in utilizing drop coverage. That aggressiveness should pay off against a Mean Green offense that turns the ball over at the tenth-highest rate (17%) in league play, and will force more catch-and-shoot opportunities for a team that ranks outside the top five in 3-point shooting percentage.

Florida Atlantic is just 1-6 ATS as an underdog this season while North Texas is 3-0-2 ATS as a road favorite, so consider this a heavy contrarian play on the home ‘dogs.

Pick: Florida Atlantic +1.5 (-122)

Rutgers (+9.5) at Michigan (-9.5) | O/U 154.5 (-105/-115)

Michigan is coming off its lowest-scoring win in 17 years in a 49-46 road win at Nebraska on Monday. The win also marked just the third time in 11 years that a team won a Big Ten game while not topping 50 points.

I am again going with the contrarian play and expecting a higher-scoring game this time around, especially since these two teams combined for just 129 points in a 66-63 Michigan road win on February 1. However Rutgers’ phenom freshman Dylan Harper did not play in that game, and that allowed the Wolverines to key on the Scarlet Knights’ other standout freshman, as they held Ace Bailey to just 10 points on 3-of-15 shooting.

I do not expect the same dialed-in defense we saw from Michigan on Monday, especially with this being its third game in less than a week. The Over is 9-7 in Michigan’s 16 Big Ten games and is 7-3-1 when Rutgers has a rest advantage over its opponent this season.

Pick: Over 154.5 Total Points (-105)

UC San Diego (-5.5) at Cal St. Northridge (+5.5) | O/U 149.5 (-112/-108)

UC San Diego is only in its fifth season as a D-I team but currently is tied for the nation’s fourth-longest active winning streak at nine games.

The Tritons pummeled Cal St. Northridge 79-54 at home on January 25, forcing 17 turnovers and holding the Matadors to 0.74 points per possession. CSUN shot just 14.3% from 3-point range in that game, and the Tritons battled hard on the backboards (losing the rebounding advantage 42-34) despite the Matadors owning the best offensive and defensive rebounding percentages in league play.

However, that was CSUN’s only loss in the last 10 games, and I expect it to find its shooting touch at home, especially since it makes 36.8% of its 3-point attempts in league play this season.

UCSD has been better in the underdog role (6-0 ATS) than as favorites (15-5 ATS) this season, and I expect a much closer game in this rematch.

Pick: CSUN +5.5 (-110)

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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