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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/8)

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On Monday, OptaSTATS posted the following statistic and it has since become a trend in college basketball.

Since then, No. 3 North Carolina was the latest casualty, falling to unranked Clemson 80-76 at home in what could have been considered a letdown spot. That was on the heels of North Carolina’s big win over the weekend against Duke, and five other teams ranked in the top 25 by AP have lost to unranked teams this week. Tonight, No. 8 Arizona will put that trend to the test in a tricky road game in Salt Lake City against unranked Utah, while No. 20 Florida Atlantic is the only other AP top 25 team in action (playing at UAB).

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Drexel @ UNC Wilmington (-3.5) | O/U 137.5 (-110/-110) 

This matchup will go a long way in determining the CAA regular season champion, as Drexel (8-2) and UNC Wilmington (7-3) are two of the four teams with a 7-3 or better league record.

Drexel easily covered as 1.5-point home favorites in their first meeting with UNC Wilmington on January 4. The Dragons were in a revenge spot of sorts in that game after losing their two games against UNCW last year (at home and on a neutral court in the conference tournament) by a combined six points. Drexel was dealing with injuries for those games late last season, and looked every bit the favorite with the team fully healthy in this year’s rematch, but UNCW did many things to suggest that the game should have been much closer than the 78-63 final score would indicate.

The Seahawks are one of the smallest teams in the country, ranking 234th in average height, and they have struggled to keep opponents off the offensive glass, surrendering a 30% offensive rebounding rate (ninth in the CAA). However, when they faced a Drexel team that leads the conference in offensive rebounding (the Dragons secure 35.1% of their misses in league play), the Seahawks allowed just five offensive rebounds and held tough on the boards overall, getting outrebounded 35-33. UNCW also committed fewer turnovers (10 to Drexel’s 12) and made 21 of 24 free throw attempts. But their undoing was shooting 6 of 30 (20%) from the 3-point range, while Drexel shot 47.4% (9 of 19) from beyond the arc.

Donovan Newby was the only UNCW starter to score double-digits in their first meeting, as the Seahawks got 30 combined points from KJ Jenkins and Trazarien White off the bench. We expect a much more balanced scoring output in this home rematch, as there are four Seahawks players averaging double figures on the season. In what should be a low-possession game (each team ranks 11th or lower in adjusted tempo in league play), we trust the better free-throw shooting team (UNCW ranks 23rd nationally, making 77% of its free throws) to cover. In addition, Drexel is 4-8 ATS in road games this season, while UNCW is 15-12-1 ATS at home since 2021.

Pick: UNC Wilmington -3.5 (-112)

Detroit Mercy @ Wright State (-19) | O/U 160.5 (-108/-112)

Detroit Mercy took the loss of D-I’s second all-time leading scorer hard, as without Antoine Davis, the Titans are 0-24 this year. Needless to say, bettors could be swimming in money if they knew Detroit would get off to such a poor start.

Not only has Detroit struggled from a wins and losses perspective, but they are 5-19 ATS, including covering just one of their nine home games. However, if there is reason for optimism, the Titans have been a better road ATS team (4-10 ATS as road underdogs) and should be catching Wright State in a classic lookahead spot.

Wright State enters the day 8-5 in league play and two games back of 10-3 Oakland, who they host on Saturday. In addition, the Raiders have not been world beaters at home, losing two of their last three home games to teams above them in the standings, which should also put added emphasis on this weekend’s game, rather than tonight’s. The Titans have an avenue to hang around in this game, as Wright State is the Horizon League’s worst 3-point defense, allowing 38.8% from beyond the arc in league play. Wright State is also ninth or worse in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and turnovers forced.

Detroit lost by five points at Wright State last year, and all Titans outside of Antoine Davis shot 54.8% from 2-point range and made 7 of 18 shots beyond the arc. We expect the Titans to stay within this big number and cover for the third time in their last four games as underdogs of at least 19 points.

Pick: Detroit Mercy +19 (-112)

Arizona (-5) @ Utah | O/U 160 (-112/-108)

Arizona flirted with disaster in their last game against Stanford, trailing 45-34 at the half, as the Wildcats had no answer for mobile big Maxime Raynaud, who finished with 29 points on 11 of 19 shooting. However, the Wildcats can use the momentum of a much better defensive second half to carry over into this game; as they held the Cardinals to 26 points over the final 20 minutes, and Stanford finished with just 1.01 points per possession after a torrid start.

Utah’s 7-foot center Branden Carlson has attempted the third-most 3-pointers of anyone on the team, and that is something the Utes will look to exploit in much the same way Stanford did with Raynaud. However, Carlson has been ice cold, shooting 28.3% (13 of 46) from beyond the arc in his last nine league games, including going just 1 of 6 from the 3-point range in a 92-73 road loss at Arizona on January 6.

We also love the Under in this game because of Utah’s home/road defensive splits. The Utes entered their last road trip to Washington State and Washington allowing 1.2 points per possession in league road games. Then, Utah allowed an average of 88.5 points in two losses to those teams, while the Cougars and Huskies scored 1.25 and 1.31 points per possession, respectively. Meanwhile, the Utes have allowed 64 points per game in their six Pac-12 home games, and they lead the league in effective field goal percentage defense and 2-point percentage allowed (45.9%) in league games. That should come in handy when defending Arizona’s Oumar Ballo, who is averaging 16.8 points per game in the team’s last four wins.

The Under is 8-4 in Utah’s 12 home games, and we expect it to cash again, especially with the Utes being able to game plan differently after facing Arizona once already this year.

Pick: Under 160 (-108)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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