Thursday’s college basketball slate offers an exciting blend of conference tournament action and the final regular season games for several power conference teams.
Be sure to visit BettingPros next week for comprehensive analysis and picks for every game from every power conference tournament. Yours truly will be covering the Big East Tournament in depth.
Keep reading for a detailed breakdown of our college basketball best bets and top picks for Thursday, March 6th.
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Thursday's Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Michigan State (-6.5) at Iowa (+6.5) | O/U 151.5 (-112/-108)
As we get into the “dog days†of March, teams can start to look sluggish while finding it more difficult to score consistently. That has happened to Michigan State, who has seen the under cash in six consecutive games and nine of the last 10.
However, Michigan State’s defensive struggles seem to be more of a product of the competition, as it has faced several of the Big Ten’s best and most disciplined teams of late. The Spartans should find little resistance against the Hawkeyes, who have allowed 79+ points in four of the last five games.
Iowa ranks 340th in effective field goal percentage and 344th in two-point percentage allowed. That suggests the Spartans will be able to capitalize a ton in transition opportunities, especially since Iowa does not mind pushing the pace (56th in adjusted tempo).
The over has cashed in three of Michigan State’s four games as road favorites. Iowa is 6-1 on rest of four or more days - they have not played since last Friday.
Pick: Over 151.5 Points (-112)
Queens (+9.5) at Lipscomb (-9.5) | O/U 148.5 (-105/-115)
I cashed on Queens +4.5 as one of my most confident against the spread (ATS) plays of the season in its first Atlantic Sun (ASUN) Men’s Basketball Championship tournament game on Monday. I would have continued to ride the Royals as a sleeper, but Lipscomb is easily the worst matchup for them in this tournament.
The Bisons are on a revenge tour after losing their first conference tournament game 77-75 to North Alabama on their home court last year.
Lipscomb is tough to defend with its 4-out and 5-out motion concepts, and it ranks in the top 10 nationally in
ShotQuality‘s spacing metric. The Bisons’ willingness to shoot threes in volume also opens up driving lanes, which they took advantage of to be the league’s most efficient two-point and rim offense this season.
Lipscomb lost on its home court to Queens this season by two points, but exacted revenge in a 94-81 road victory in which it scored 1.34 points per possession and shot 46.7% from three-point range. I expect more elite offense from the Bisons en route to covering this rather large spread.
Pick: Lipscomb -9.5 (-112)
Oakland (+6.5) at Milwaukee (-6.5) | O/U 144.5 (-115/-105)
This is a rematch of last year’s Horizon League Tournament final that Oakland won 83-76 on a neutral court. That victory propelled the Golden Grizzlies to the NCAA Tournament, where head coach Greg Kampe became much more of a household name after upsetting Kentucky in the first round.
However, this is not the same Oakland team as last year, as it finished the regular season just 14-17, and a clear weakness all season was a lack of a true point guard.
The Golden Grizzlies have won two straight games over Horizon League bottomfeeder Green Bay, but the victory in the regular season finale was uninspiring. Oakland needed overtime to beat Green Bay and allowed 1.1 points per possession in zone sets to a poor shooting Phoenix squad.
Milwaukee is a beast on the backboards, ranking as the best offensive and defensive rebounding team in league play. That advantage should be magnified by the fact Oakland plays zone primarily on defense.
I expect the Panthers will get revenge on their home court for last year’s loss in the tournament final. They should also benefit from extra rest, as they are 6-3 ATS this season when they have had four or more days off.
Pick: Milwaukee -6.5 (-108)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.