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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/7)

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While the postseason tournaments from the power conferences do not begin until next weekend, several tournaments from historically one-bid leagues are already underway, as every day of college basketball action this week has offered a solid blend of cut-throat conference tournament action and thrilling games from power conferences, as teams continue to strengthen their NCAA tournament resumes.

If what has happened in the ASUN tournament thus far is any indication what we are in for for the rest of March, we are in for a wild ride. The tournament started with two upsets in opening round matchups, and two of the top three seeds (No. 1 Eastern Kentucky and No. 3 Lipscomb) have already been knocked out in their first postseason games.

Today’s trio of picks are centered around conference tournament action, with two previews of Patriot League games, and one pick from the Horizon League.

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland (-3.5) | O/U 148 (-110/-110) 

In a conference where most teams use zone as their primary defense, perhaps no team uses it more than Oakland throughout longtime coach Greg Kampe’s tenure. However, even though the Grizzlies are the No. 1 seed and were the only Horizon League team to win 15 conference games this season, their zone had leaks and can be exploited by Purdue Fort Wayne.

Oakland allows one of the highest 3-point attempt rates in the country (41.3%), which is why it ranks 46th in opponents’ percentage of points coming from 3-point range (34.9%). Few teams have had as much success against the Grizzlies zone this season than the Mastodons, who buried 65.4% (17-of-26) 3-point attempts in an early-season win against Oakland. The Grizzlies struggle with teams that move the ball well, as they allow the highest assist to made field goal rate (60.4%) in league play, and the Mastadons had 24 assists on 38 made field goals in that first matchup.

The key to Purdue Fort Wayne staying close in this matchup will be its ability to neutralize Grizzlies big man Trey Townsend, who averages 16.6 points per game. The Mastadons held Townsend to 24 combined points in those two meetings, and are one of just two teams to limit him to single-digit 2-point attempts in two regular season matchups.

Purdue Fort Wayne gets the benefit of having an off day yesterday compared to many of the conference tournament setups where games are played everyday. And Oakland has not even performed well with a rest advantage over its opponents, covering the spread in just three of nine such games this season, and going 0-3 ATS in conference tournament games since 2021.

Pick: Purdue Fort Wayne +3.5 (-115)

Lehigh (-2.5) @ Lafayette | O/U 137 (-110/-110)

Lehigh aims for a clean sweep of three wins in its third meeting with its biggest Patriot League rival, after the first two meetings were decided by eight or fewer points (the first meeting went to double overtime). And while we are well aware of the old adage that it is difficult to beat a team three times in a season, especially given how there does not appear to be much separating these teams, we cannot ignore how differently each of these teams are trending entering this matchup.

Lafayette lost four straight games to end the regular season (and six of seven), while Lehigh went 5-2 down the stretch. Granted, the Mountain Hawks did lose their final two games, but those came by a combined five points against Boston University and Colgate, the top two teams in the league. That impressive 5-2 stretch coincided with Lehigh getting back its second-leading scorer, Keith Higgins Jr. (13.3 points per game), back from a nine-game absence. Lehigh would likely have finished much higher than the league’s No. 6 seed if Higgins stayed healthy, as the team went 3-6 in his absence. The 6-foot-4 junior has scored in double figures in four games since his return, and his presence on the perimeter should open up more interior scoring against the league’s best interior defense (the Leopards allow just 45.1% from 2-point range in Patriot League games). However, the Mountain Hawks have had little difficulty scoring inside on Lafayette, combining for 64 points at the rim in their prior two meetings.

Pick: Lehigh -2.5 (-110)

Navy @ Boston University (-4) | O/U 132.5 (-110/-110)

On paper, this looks like a quarterfinal mismatch between the No. 2 and No. 7 seeds in the Patriot League, but Navy will be a confident bunch having split the two regular season meetings with Boston University.

There is no denying that the Terriers are a formidable group offensively, ranking as the league’s most efficient offense since the calendar turned to February. However, their defense has not been reliable over that stretch, ranking third-worst in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is concerning when taking into account that BU played four games against the bottom-four teams in the league in that stretch, and just one against the top three (a 74-64 loss to Colgate).

If offense is what is needed to pull the upset, we have faith in the Midshipmen in that regard, led by point guard Austin Benigni, who has scored in double figures in 20 consecutive games. Benigni has also averaged nearly four assists per game during the team’s five-game winning streak to end the regular season, and Navy has allowed an average of 59.8 points per game during that stretch. Thus, the Midshipmen have an excellent chance to hold BU to that average, considering the Terriers rank 314th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Navy is 7-4-1 ATS after a win this season, while BU has covered just 40% of its games as a favorite this season, and is 17-22 ATS as a home favorite since 2021. BU is also just 1-2 SU in its previous three conference tournament games, and we would not put anyone off sprinkling a little on Navy’s moneyline odds for a bigger payout.

Pick: Navy +4 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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