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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (1/2)

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Happy New Year to all! We are officially in the year of March Madness and I absolutely cannot wait. Until then, it's time to get excited for conference play to pick up steam, and game after game matters as college basketball slowly finds the spotlight in the sports world. It's been a decent season with a couple of interesting results recently. As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds as some books aren't as sharp when it comes to the depths of college basketball odds.  

Here are my best bets for Tuesday's slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.  

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Tuesday's College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 23-22

New Mexico vs. Colorado State 

I want to start with a shout-out to the Mountain West conference because it historically goes under the radar with its late start times and mid-major status. Still both teams sit at 12-1 with Colorado State a current projected five-seed and New Mexico as a 10 on bracket matrix. These both should be tournament teams so now is the perfect time to get a bead on who they are.

The Rams' only loss is a one-possession defeat to Saint Mary's at home. Wins over Creighton, Colorado, and Washington – all top-50 KenPom teams – show just how serious you should be taking Niko Medved's squad. They have been electric in the interior while Isaiah Stevens has been the definition of a facilitating playmaker at the point with the seventh-highest assist rate in the nation.

New Mexico's only loss also happens to be Saint Mary's with their wins not as impressive. Their two top-100 victories come against UC Irvine and Louisiana Tech, with no top-75 victories. They were a preseason sleeper club with their fast-paced and all-around talent. This game should be awesome in Fort Collins. 

What I imagine this game will come down to is Colorado State's offense against New Mexico's defense. Both units rank in the top-25 in turnover percentage, but if the Rams are missing shots, they won't have many extra looks considering their 344th offensive rebounding percentage compared to New Mexico's top-50 ranking on the defensive boards.

In near-proximity shooting, Colorado State ranks second best, but the New Mexico interior defense is one of the best CSU has faced all season, and Saint Mary's is a team they managed just 61 points on. While New Mexico's offense isn't exactly a strength, neither is CSU's defense with both units ranking outside the top-50. The Lobos are expected to take very few perimeter shots with Haslametrics projecting 28 percent of their shots coming from deep, almost nine percent lower than the DI average.

Given Colorado State's expected slower pace, New Mexico's interior defense, rebounding, and overall lack of perimeter shooting expected in this game, I'm diving in on the under. Both teams would have to be quite efficient for the over to hit and New Mexico has not performed well on the road while Colorado State ranks 279th in the momentum metric. I'm tagging this game as relatively sluggish with both teams finishing in the mid 70's. 

Play: Under 157.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Purdue vs. Maryland

The first thing to look at when analyzing a Purdue-Maryland matchup is the home and road splits. Historically, they are a sharp way of betting Maryland and this year is no different. Per Haslametrics, Purdue ranks 347th away from home while Maryland ranks sixth at playing on their home court. There's a reason why reputable sites have this as a 10-point spread and the Vegas line sits around 6.5. It is a tough game to read.

The beauty of sports betting (and this article) is I can just pick a side on the total instead of a spread! The clear play to me is the under. Maryland has not been an impressive unit offensively this year, ranking 134th on KenPom. Where they rank highly is free throw rate with the fifth-highest percentage of their points coming from the charity stripe. Purdue is not a team that allows easy buckets on fouls, with only 14 percent of opponents’ points coming from the free throw line, 347th. The Boilermakers should out-rebound Maryland, allow limited second-chance points, and stop them in transition.

However, the Terrapins’ defense is a respectable 25th on KenPom with the 11th-best interior defense, where Purdue does a lot of its work. Purdue has played one true road game this year and it was a loss to Northwestern. I am expecting a down performance from Zach Edey and Co. and limited points. I see the game finishing right around the 6.5-point spread, but I am happily once again diving in on the under.

Play: Under 143 (-110 at BetRivers)

Northwestern vs. Illinois 

Northwestern has been one of the more confusing teams to handicap this year with a win over Purdue followed by a truly awful loss against Chicago State. Sometimes their sluggish pace and sub-par offense allow teams to simply stay in the game, and that's exactly what happened. 

Against Illinois, the Wildcats will have to keep up with an upbeat pace. The Illini excel on the offensive glass while ranking 20th in near-proximity shooting. Northwestern surrenders a much higher percentage of perimeter looks, so it should be an interesting battle in the interior tonight – on both sides of the court. Illinois owns the second-best interior defense, with the sixth-best mid-range defense, a place on the court where Northwestern is expected to take nearly 40 percent of their shots, 13 percent above the DI average. Brad Underwood's team simply lines up well against Chris Collins’ and I don't expect Northwestern's shooting to be good enough to keep the Cats close here. 

Play: Illinois -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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