College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (11/14)

by Ryan Coleman |
Nov 14, 2023

After a fun week of college hoops, we keep rolling along with the Champions Classic tonight and Gavitt Games underway. James Madison stole the spotlight in week one, finding themselves inside the AP Top 25 but other teams impressed too. Tennessee sits as a title contender and Purdue has shown their ability to move on from last year's early tournament defeat. There are plenty of solid games tonight so let's get to it.

Here are my best bets for Tuesday's slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.

Tuesday's Top College Basketball Picks & Predictions

Last Time: 2-0 & Season: 5-2

Duke vs. Michigan State

For two teams that both could have been considered title contenders in the preseason, one of these two teams will find themselves 1-2 after tonight's affair. Duke's loss came to another title contender in Arizona but Michigan State's loss was a little more considering they were a double-digit favorite against James Madison. Duke sits anywhere between 2.5 to 3.5 point favorite with a total hovering around 143.

A big reason the Blue Devils couldn't take down Arizona was their inability to rebound. They allowed 15 offensive boards to the Wildcats and currently rank 306th in offensive rebound rate and 218th in defensive boards. If they hope to win, the Blue Devils have to shore up their rebounding woes.

Sparty has had some pretty abysmal shooting luck so far, making just 6.5 percent of their perimeter shots. This is due for positive regression but how much can you trust their offense right now?

There is going to be a lot of interior scoring tonight with both teams scoring over 61 percent of their points from inside the arc so far. Both teams are slower than average and can lean on their defense when their scoring is lacking. What Michigan State and Duke have excelled at this year, and in recent years, is limiting transition points and second-chance opportunities. For this number to get to the total, both teams will have to be efficient on their first looks and shoot well from deep.

I don't see how this number gets to 140. Playing on a neutral court, Michigan State's perimeter shooting will probably continue to struggle and Duke's offense is still gelling together. The under is the play here.

Play: Under 143.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kansas vs. Kentucky

Of course, the other Champions Classic game is another five-star matchup in Kansas vs. Kentucky. The Jayhawks have hit the ground running in the Hunter Dickinson era, showing why they deserve the number one overall AP ranking.

The Wildcats haven't been as impressive. While they won both games, their play has been sluggish as they got out of the gate trailing 21-8 to Texas A&M Commerce. This is still a talented team however as Tre Mitchell stepped up with an 18-point effort and Kentucky had five different double-digit scorers.

Where Kentucky may falter is depth tonight. Only seven players saw the court on Friday and if the game was closer there may have even been fewer bench minutes played. The young stars have been playing well, but can they keep up with Kansas on such a big stage?

The Jayhawks can score anywhere on the court, ranking top-10 both inside and outside the perimeter in their first couple of games. Kentucky's defense is good, but I don't expect them to keep a cap on Kansas, especially with their propensity to allow the deep shot and with the dynamic offense Bill Self imposes on their opponents. If this Kentucky team had a little bit more experience under their belt I would trust them more but Kansas is running on all cylinders right now and I will be riding the Jayhawk wave.

Play: Kansas -5.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

Marquette at Illinois

Another blockbuster of a game is Marquette vs. Illinois. The Illini have quietly dominated their first two opponents and with this game being played in Champaign, it very well may come down to the final possession.

I will say, this play is only valid if Tyler Kolek is out or has a minutes limit. He's currently questionable with an ankle injury. Marquette is deadly from the mid-range but Illinoisâ€™ interior offense has been stellar, holding opponents to 34 percent from inside the arc.

Marquette might be the best offense Illinois faces all year. Terrence Shannon and Coleman Hawkins are dynamic and going to cause problems for the Golden Eagles in the frontcourt.

They are equally as dynamic offensively and Marquette's defense leaves a lot to be questioned. Illinois executes second-chance looks and ranked 13th at near-proximity shooting a year ago. Combine that with their effectiveness in transition, and I see Brad Underwood and Co. earning the win here.

Play: Illinois -1.0 (-110 at DraftKings)

Iowa at Creighton

If you want someone to get into college basketball, have them watch this game. This total sits around 160 and should feature a firework show of offense as Iowa takes on the Blue Jays.

Despite Iowa's identity as being the exact opposite of their football team, I would still take Creighton's offense. They have the single best interior shooting percentage in the county early this season with a 74.5 percent clip. Baylor Scheierman, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Trey Alexander have been awesome with truly spectacular performances.

Usually, there's a 'but' here, however, in Creighton's case, I still expect them to dominate. Iowa has a sub-100 ranked defense and with the high pace and number of possessions in this game, I imagine Creighton being able to impose their will over the game.

There's a reason Creighton has been bet up to a double-digit favorite after opening at 8.5. I'm going to jump on the Blue Jays bandwagon before it's full.

Play: Creighton -10.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

Other Bets:

Wisconsin -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Long Beach State +13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

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