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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (12/12)

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With the in-season tournaments and Jimmy V Week behind us, we've reached a bit of a lull in the College Basketball season, as the holidays are upon us.

However, now is the time when a team's true identity is formed and some valuable data points are added. This is a good opportunity to get ahead on some potential mid-majors who can make waves come March. It's also still College Basketball, which means we can gamble on it, so I'm happy with that. Remember to shop around for the best odds. With these lower-tier games, books are bound to be less sharp with the spreads and totals set.

Here are my best bets for Tuesday's slate:

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Tuesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | Last Time: 3-1 | Season: 20-15

Western Kentucky @ Wright State

I didn't expect to be writing about these two teams at the beginning of the year, but here we are. Western Kentucky hails from an underrated Conference USA, with Wright State coming out of the Horizon. Neither team has had a spectacular start to their season, but Wright State has faced some tough opponents and Western Kentucky has held serve in games they are supposed to win. 

Both teams are speed demons in possession, with Western Kentucky ranking sixth-fastest in average offensive possession length so far this year. They will drive to the hoop and crash the boards with a top-100 offensive rebound rate. Wright State has allowed a nearly 60% clip to opponents’ offense from the interior and ranks 350th in near-proximity defense, so Western Kentucky should get everything they want down low while being able to score in transition.

Where Wright State lacks in defense, they make up for in offense, ranking 54th in KenPom. They excel at second-chance opportunities, ranking 25th, and have been quite consistent, ranking 10th in the Haslametrics consistency metric. I wouldn't expect a flat tire game out of these Raiders tonight.

Still, the total is simply too high for my liking, and it won't exactly be an efficient effort from either team. Western Kentucky is one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in the country, ranking 348th. While Wright State can shoot, the Hilltoppers own the 13th-best defensive unit from beyond the arc. Neither team will put up many points from deep, which makes it tough to reach such a high number. They can get the easy buckets down low, and still fall short, which is what I'm expecting tonight.

Play: Under 163.0 (-110)

Hofstra @ #21 Duke

You have to dig into the weeds for potential leans for mismatched games and big spreads. Hofstra should not be slept on and is currently the highest-ranked metric team coming out of the Coastal Athletic Association. Tyler Thomas is a playmaking guard who is always on the floor and more than capable of heating up from deep. This team shoots a ton of threes, with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc, the 12th-highest rate in College Basketball.

However, this team is scary to bet on because you never know what to expect. They have been playing better of late but rank 339th in the consistency metric and 239th away from home. I highly advise teasing this game out in either direction because I do not imagine the final to be right around the current 15-point spread.

What I highlight the most in this matchup is how Duke has been superb at home. Besides a loss to the current No. 1 team in the nation, Arizona, on Nov. 10, the Blue Devils have trounced lesser opponents at Cameron Indoor. Hofstra doesn't force many turnovers, and their perimeter defense is one of the weakest units in the country. I imagine a game of runs tonight, but eventually, Jeremy Roach, Kyle Flipowski or Caleb Foster will get hot, and Duke will run away with this one. Duke also highly mismatches Hofstra on the boards, so if the Pride are cold, they don't have anything to fall back on for second-chance looks. 

Play: Duke -15.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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