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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (12/19)

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Oh man, what a weekend it was in College Basketball.

Purdue-Arizona was an absolute delight and lived up to all the hype as a potential Final Four preview game. Kentucky showed up against North Carolina, Creighton outlasted Alabama, and Michigan State showed that they aren't dead in the water just yet.

There is a lot of season left and plenty of interesting matchups to come. Things will get spicier once conference play gets rolling after the new year, but for now, I will take the continued excitement. As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds out there, as there are always discrepancies to be found in the market.

Here are my best bets for Tuesday’s slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.

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Tuesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 0-2 | Season: 21-18

Florida @ Michigan

It may not be two championship-caliber teams going at it today, but we still have what should be an exciting matchup in a game with a one-possession spread and a high total.

Florida was one of my preseason sleeper teams, and they have held serve so far, losing to Virginia and Baylor on a neutral court with a not-so-great loss at Wake Forest. Michigan has been a bit more confusing with losses to Long Beach State and Oregon, but they've collected two nice wins in their two most recent games.

The Gators have excelled on the glass this year, ranking fourth in offensive rebound rate and 32nd in second-chance conversion points. While Michigan ranks 19th in near-proximity defense, Florida has the upper hand offensively from the perimeter and should get plenty of points from the offensive boards with the number of interior shots they take. Alex Condon has fit in nicely as a 6-11 freshman, and the 6-10 Tyrese Samuel has bolstered the Florida frontcourt on both sides of the ball.

With Juwan Howard back coaching, it appears Michigan has a little bit of momentum on its hands. Their offense has been more than effective, ranking 20th in KenPom adjusted efficiency while owning the fourth-best mid-range shooting percentage. They rebound their misses well and convert second-chance looks similar to Florida.

This game simply screams over. Florida pushes the pace at a top-10 rate in the league. Neither team forces many turnovers, so the shots will be flowing, and many possessions will feature converting misses and open looks. It does scare me a bit that neither team is an elite free-throw shooting team, but I don't expect that to matter. With Michigan's 126th-ranked defense and how good the Wolverine offense has been, I see this game reaching 160 total points.  

Play: Over 156.5 (-115 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

#6 Marquette @ Providence 

Now this game I can get behind because Big East games rarely fail to excite. College Basketball is one of the few sports where home-field advantage really shines through, and that may show its teeth tonight. Providence comes in ranked 19th at playing from home, while Marquette sits at 263rd in away-from-home play. 

That number may be a bit misleading, considering the strength of schedule has been significantly more difficult away from the Fiserv Forum for Shaka Smart and Co., but it is still worth noting. They have faced a true gauntlet either on the road or on neutral courts this year, including Illinois, UCLA, Kansas, Purdue and Wisconsin. Going 3-2 in that stretch is impressive in itself. 

Meanwhile, the Friars are still a team that hasn't seemed to play all its cards yet. They have a win over Wisconsin but otherwise have yet to beat a top-200 team with losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma. Their defense is elite, especially on the interior, but I am unsure if they can keep up with the speed and dynamic capabilities of the Golden Eagles offense.

Ranking first in mid-range looks, Marquette doesn't turn the ball over and will find open looks each trip down the court. Alternatively, Providence doesn't take care of the ball well on offense, ranking 289th in turnover rate, while Marquette forces turnovers at the 14th-highest clip. The opportunity will simply be higher for Marquette, and the Friars don't exactly capitalize on their misses. Marquette has been battle-tested already this year and I expect them to cruise tonight.

Play: Marquette -4.0 (-110 via BetRivers)

#22 Virginia @ #23 Memphis

I'll keep this one short and sweet:  Virginia is winning this game.

If there is any way to beat Memphis, it is with slow, methodical play. The Tigers love to push the pace with the 24th fastest offensive tempo but fail to take care of the ball well and come in ranking 45th in offensive efficiency. Virginia's defense is back to its old ways, ranking second in adjusted efficiency. The Tigers love to get out and run, but the Cavaliers own the third-best transition defense and will allow nothing from deep.

Virginia has been a bit of a tough nut to crack after putting up 41 points against Wisconsin. Yet after five straight wins, including a drubbing of Texas A&M, I have learned to put more respect on their name. I trust their perimeter shooting and mid-range looks well enough that they won't need to defend on the offensive glass to score. Memphis is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the nation, so the opportunity might arise for Virginia anyway. My official play is to take the points with Virginia, but don't be afraid to bet on Tony Bennett outright tonight in the FedEx Forum.  

Play: Virginia +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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