Navigate

College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (12/5)

by |

The past week in college basketball has been absolute madness. Top teams like UConn, Tennessee, Marquette, Duke, Purdue, Villanova and Mississippi State all suffered losses – some weren’t bad, but others weren’t so great. This point has already been made plenty but it truly does appear that no team will be head and shoulders above anyone else.

Be ready for a lot of close games and upsets not only in March but leading up to the tournament as well. The past few weeks have been difficult from a betting standpoint but we have learned some valuable information needed to make the necessary adjustments. 

Here are my best bets for Tuesday’s slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.  

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Tuesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 0-3 | Season: 15-13

No. 5 UConn vs. No. 9 North Carolina

Let me start by saying I may have had one of the worst reads of my college betting career when fading UNC last week against Tennessee. After having one of the best offensive first halves I have ever seen in my life of watching college basketball, the Tar Heels and their offense earned my respect.

UConn has shown its capacity for scoring as well, ranking seventh in near-proximity scoring and sixth in second-chance conversion percentage to pair with the eighth-best offensive-rebounding percentage in Division I hoops. There will be plenty of opportunity to score for both teams tonight.

In its 100-92 defeat over Tennessee this past Wednesday, North Carolina went 12-28 (.429) from beyond the arc. I don’t expect them to shoot over 40 percent consistently, but Tennessee should be one of the best defenses the Tar Heels face all year. If UConn has a kryptonite, it’s their perimeter containment. The Huskies allow opponents to shoot over 37 percent from deep this year, the 316th worst in basketball.

North Carolina has shot up the analytical rankings this year while UConn has stayed steady with a dominating frontcourt. With this game being played on a neutral court in New York City, it gives me pause to jump on UNC +5.5 considering they were one of the worst teams to play away from home last year, ranking 307th, while UConn was elite on neutral court games. I see the ability for both teams to get ample looks and a lot of expected free throws here to send this game over its point total. Grab your popcorn for this one folks.   

Play: Over 152.5 (-110, BetMGM)

No. 11 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 20 Illinois

For another thrilling neutral court game, we get the Owls of Florida Atlantic facing off against a surprising Illinois team that has been absolutely dominant defensively so far. Besides a setback against Bryant, FAU has been just as stellar with a phenomenal victory over Texas A&M and every victory since then being by double-digits. 

This will come down to the FAU offense against the Illini defense. Both units rank inside the top 10 this season and the battle inside the arc should be electric. Brad Underwood’s Fighting Illini ranks first in the nation at two-point defense while the Owls own the fifth-best mid-range shooting percentage.  

While Illinois is elite defensively, they haven’t exactly faced a gauntlet of offenses and allowed 71 to the one true offense they did face in Marquette. What I don’t trust either is their offense as Illinois sits at 53rd in KenPom offensive efficiency with FAU suffocating any putback or transition opportunities. 

FAU has been one of the more inconsistent teams early on this season, actually ranking 359th in the Haslametrics consistency metric. This is a great opportunity to tease with Illinois playing quite well away from home and the high possibility of outcomes in this game. Still, I trust Dusty May and Co. to show up more than they don’t. The Owls have weapons on every level and I see Madison Square Garden being on their side tonight.  

Play: FAU -2.0 (-112, DraftKings)

No. 23 Wisconsin at Michigan State

For two teams heading in exactly opposite directions early on this season, tonight is the perfect bounce-back opportunity for Tom Izzo’s squad. Still, I wouldn’t be so confident.

Sparty’s shooting this year has been atrocious: The team’s sub-27 percent shooting percentage from beyond the arc ranks 332nd in the nation. The Badgers’ propensity to force turnovers while limiting offensive boards and second-chance looks makes me quite concerned about Michigan State’s ability to score. Both teams limit the transition while Michigan State’s perimeter defense is one of the best in the nation. Scoring will be at a high premium tonight.

Yes, I understand how low the total already is, but I expect the first team to 60 wins this one. Each squad ranks sub-300 in the pace of play this year. Wisconsin held Virginia to 18 first-half points and Michigan State’s offense ranks outside the top 60.

Don’t expect this to be the most exciting game to watch. There will be scoring droughts and shot clock violations plenty in East Lansing. I expect Wisconsin to keep it close in a low-scoring affair.    

Play: Under 131.5 (-108, FanDuel)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App