College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (2/20)
Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. It's been a wacky-wavy-inflatable-armed-tubed-man level of a season, with some crazy games even just last night. College basketball is difficult to handicap already but this year has been especially interesting. Now that we're well into February it's time to ask big questions like "Is it March yet?" I cannot wait for the madness.
Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.
Tuesday's College Basketball Best Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 44-41 (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Connecticut at Creighton
I'm not sure if you've seen UConn play basketball this year, but they are remarkable if you haven't. Coming off an 81-53 victory over Marquette, the Huskies only find themselves around a three-point favorite despite owning the nation’s longest winning streak of 14.
It's not as if UConn heavily struggles on the road, is less consistent, or playing its worst basketball right now. The Huskies outrank Creighton in all those metrics on Haslametrics currently.
The Blue Jays have been playing well of late with three straight wins but they lost to UConn earlier this year, only putting up 48 points, and are not exactly indestructible at home. I fully expect Donovan Clingan to dominate in the paint, as he does, and Tristen Newton to continue his wizardly ways. Creighton allows ample mid-range looks which is where I see UConn thriving.
Offensively, I am not sure I see a path to success for Creighton unless they are gunning from deep. The near-proximity look did not work out last game and Creighton doesn't exactly run in transition or capitalize on second-chance looks.
This might be the easiest bet I've ever placed. Winning on the road is tough, yes, but this UConn team is simply a beast. Feel free to place a few units on this one.
Play: UConn -3.0 (-108)
Baylor at BYU
Now if there is a team that benefits from home-court advantage, it’s the BYU Cougars. Ranking 12th in the nation in the home court metric, Baylor will have its hands full tonight in the Marriott Center.
Both these offenses are electric, with each unit ranking in the top 10 of offensive efficiency while neither defense ranks in the top 50. Baylor has shown struggles on the road but they still compete and their offense travels well. It's tough to judge where this BYU team is really at given the number of perimeter shots they take a game with over 31 percent of their points coming from beyond the arc, the second-highest in the nation.
What BYU does very well is rebound the ball defensively, ranking first in limiting second-chance looks. They also have an elite mid-range defense and don't allow much in transition. This feels a bit off here but I'm going to zag and take the under. Looking at these numbers on the surface, it seems like this is going to be a shootout, but with how the defenses align with the others’ shot selection, I'm going to take the Under instead.
Play: Under 155 Total Points (-105)
Pittsburgh at Wake Forest
I'm going to highlight this game here because there are some major bracket implications. Both teams are squarely on the bubble and both are jockeying for position as we turn towards the latter half of February.
If you haven't been watching Blake Hinson lately, you're missing out. He will shoot anything, draining nine threes last game and five the game before. Pitt is riding a five-game winning streak while Wake Forest has lost each of its last pair of games.
I'm surprised at how wide this spread is, especially considering the solid defensive minds, how the Panthers have been playing of late, and how Wake Forest won't come by anything easily on offense. Pittsburgh rebounds well and ranks 15th in perimeter shooting, so the Demon Deacons must get creative if they hope to cover the spread. I'm trusting momentum and perimeter shooting here, however, and taking Pittsburgh to cover.
Play: Pittsburgh +6.5 (-112)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: