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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (3/12)

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Welcome back to another day of best bets for the College Basketball slate. Conference tournaments are rolling, the sun is shining and I can almost hear the Selection Sunday bells.

We're down the home stretch with auto-bids already handed out and we finally have reached the point where power conferences begin their respective tournaments. I will focus more on the mid-major finals today to give you a sense of some Cinderellas to look out for when March Madness starts rolling next week. 

Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate.

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Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 3-1 | Season: 52-47

Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's

The obvious highlight of today's slate belongs to the WCC Tournament Championship between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the St. Mary's Gaels. With Gonzaga around a 3.5-point favorite and a total of 139, this game is shaping up to be an awesome rematch.

The two teams split the regular season matchups, both winning on the away court. Considering Gonzaga relatively whooped on the Gaels most recently, it's hard not to consider recency bias here. Ryan Nembhard showed out, and Gonzaga handled business through and through.

An underrated part of handicapping today's game is considering Joshua Jefferson's absence from Saint Mary's. The 6-foot-8 sophomore was a high-usage forward and was a big reason for St. Mary's win over the Zags back in February. His absence was noticed last game; I expect it to be noticed again tonight. With Harry Wessels also questionable, Saint Mary's could have a real size issue here, limiting their usual dominant rebounding. 

With Gonzaga's pacing and the consecutive games scheduled, I also question St. Mary's ability to play a full 40 minutes. The Bulldogs should be able to score down low and in transition, and I expect St. Mary's to struggle to manufacture points if the shots aren't falling. This is an easy pick for me. Gonzaga has been a top-10 team in the nation since Feb. 1, and they're the better team now. 

Bet: Gonzaga -3.0 (-115 via PointsBet)

Stony Brook vs. College of Charleston

In the Coastal Championship, Charleston is a double-digit favorite with a total of over 150. It’s not exactly the closest game, but you should be aware of the Charleston name heading into the tournament. 

The Cougars, led by coach Pat Kelsey, currently have the second-longest active win streak in College Basketball, 11 straight games. In the regular season, they only faced Stony Brook once, handling business on the road with a 93-87 victory.

Charleston loves to run and gun. With a top-50 pace of play in the nation, nearly 40% of their points come from beyond the arc, the 15th highest in the league. Reyne Smith can knock it down from anywhere, and Ben Burnham can also get hot. The Cougars rebound well and take care of the ball, so there should be plenty of shot opportunities tonight.

What they don't do so well is play defense. Ranking 170th in KenPom, Charleston absolutely has some holes for Stony Brook to exploit. Considering how game one went, I expect many shots and makes here, so I'm happy to ride the over.

Bet: Over 150.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Denver vs. South Dakota State

Finally, we have the Summit League Championship. If you want to be dazzled, please tune in to CBS Sports Network tonight because this game will have plenty of fireworks. Around a double-digit favorite, South Dakota State should take down the auto-bid, but beware of Denver.

Led by the nation’s leading scorer, Tommy Bruner, Denver is simply fun to watch. The Pioneers are the definition of all gas, no brakes. They rank in the country’s top half in offensive efficiency but come in at 352nd in defense.

The thing is, that offense can show up any night. Denver beat South Dakota State earlier this year with a 99-80 victory at home. The two teams split their regular season matchups, with the Jackrabbits handling business at home with a 97-70 victory in their second matchup.

South Dakota State has been much hotter of late, winning seven straight. Both teams struggle on the neutral court, and considering how the rest of the games in the tournament have gone already (South Dakota State only put up 59 yesterday), I expect this game to fall to the under. Still, it should be a delight to watch and beware of (presumably) the Jackrabbits come tourney time.

Play: Under 159 (-110 via BetRivers)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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