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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (3/5)

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Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. Conference tournaments are rolling, the sun is shining, and I can almost hear the Selection Sunday bells. We have some solid games tonight that will continue solidifying conference tournament seeding and can be potential difference-makers for bubble teams. It’s been a roller coaster of a season but I’m only feeling better every day.  

Here are my best bets for Tuesday’s slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.  

Last Time: 1-2
Season: 47-46

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Tuesday’s Best College Basketball Bets

(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)

Purdue at Illinois

For the marquee matchup of the night, we have your Big Ten powerhouses going at it. Purdue sits as a 2.5-point underdog but let me be clear: they should be favored in this matchup.  

Home-court advantage is all the buzz in college basketball, rightfully so, but this Purdue team can travel. Ranking third in second-chance conversion percentage and fourth in near-proximity, it’s not as if Purdue depends much on the deep ball.

Illinois has been playing well of late but it doesn’t make sense that the Illini are favored. When these two teams faced off in January, Illinois never led, with Purdue’s lead reaching 20-plus points in the second half. Terrence Shannon was out that game, in fairness, but Zach Edey only played 23 minutes with foul trouble.

With both teams full go, Purdue is the better team, even on the road. Illinois forces turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the country, and I trust Purdue’s offense against a sub-100-ranked defense. I’ve never felt so comfortable taking a road underdog in my life. 

Play: Purdue +2.5 (-115)

Alabama at Florida

With both teams coming off losses this feels like a must-win for both squads. While I was hesitant to trust home court the game before, I’m all in on that angle now. Alabama ranks 352nd in the nation in the away-from-home metric and Florida sits at 44th. The Gators truly step up their game at home and are a more consistent team that is playing with a lot more momentum.

Alabama will run and gun but Florida can keep up with their 45th ranked pace of play. I expect Florida to dominate on the offensive glass and limit the number of threes the Crimson Tide even attempt, let alone make.  

In their first matchup a few months ago, Florida pushed the game to overtime in Tuscaloosa. Now, I think they simply have the upper hand. Alabama’s transition defense is below average, and I trust Florida to capitalize on their near-proximity looks, as Nate Oats’ squad ranks outside the top 100 in defending that look. A home favorite, for your liking.

Play: Florida -1.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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