College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/10)

by Ryan Coleman|Jan 10, 2024

Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. In the dead of winter, nothing hits better than hot cocoa and conference basketball. We saw some awesome matchups last night and continue rolling with a fresh slate of games this evening. I won't preview this game but keep your eyes on Indiana State-Drake. The Sycamores have been rolling this year with an electric offense. At Drake is their first true road battle in the MVC this year and I'd advise getting your popcorn out because it should be a doozy. It will serve as a true test if Indiana State is a serious Cinderella contender this season, or just another analytical paper lion.

Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.

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Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 1-1
Season: 28-24

Tennessee at Mississippi State

In a matchup between two of my favorite teams from a pre-season betting perspective, it nearly pains me to preview this game, nearly. Tennessee suffered three losses - all to top-20 KenPom teams - and hasn't looked back since. They sit at fourth in KenPom with the second most efficient defense in the nation. Dalton Knecht has been thrilling to watch and Zakai Zeigler has done a solid role facilitating in the backcourt.

Mississippi State was slept on heavily in the preseason and they started out the gate hot showing it. Since Thanksgiving, however, not so much. Losses to Southern and Georgia Tech are not exactly “good” losses, but this team still has talent with depth. Tennessee was clobbered in their last true road game at North Carolina, so this matchup should be tighter than some people might expect.

Still, it's not like Mississippi State's home court advantage is something to write home about. This game really will come down to defense. Both squads boast top-10 units with the Bulldogs allowing nothing outside, limiting opponents to shooting 27 percent from the perimeter. Both squads are expected to take around 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, per Haslametrics, which bodes well for Mississippi State.

But Tennessee is a juggernaut defensively. They have the best near-proximity defense in all DI and allow next to nothing when it comes to second chance looks. The Bulldogs failed to reach 60 in two of their losses and considering they won't force the pace on Tennessee, I expect the Volunteers to control this game.

It is a little risky considering how low this point total is already, but Mississippi State has folded to lesser competition already this year, and started their SEC play shaky against South Carolina. With a higher shot volume from deep, there is a bit more variance expected from this game but I feel pretty comfortable taking the under here.

Play: Under 140 (PointsBet)

Oklahoma at TCU

For another team slept on in the preseason we have the fighting Porter Mosers out of Oklahoma. The Sooners have dazzled all the way up to ranking ninth in the AP Poll with their lone loss coming away from home to North Carolina. Javian McCollum impressed in their win over Iowa State and face a TCU team coming off a backbreaking loss to Kansas. This is what I'm talking about.

I expect both teams to play from the interior and for TCU to control the pace of an up tempo game. Where the Horned Frogs far out rank Oklahoma is in the transition game, ranking second offensively with potential quick points off turnovers compared to OU's 208th defensive metric. Only 21 percent of TCU's points come from beyond the arc, ranking 342nd in the nation, but their interior offense is electric with Emanuel Miller and Micah Peavy making up a solid front court duo.

Despite not many looks from deep, this will be an efficient ball with plenty of second-chance looks. Both teams rebound offensively and convert second chance looks well and the TCU defense doesn't align too well with Oklahoma. I simply can't fade Oklahoma based on how well they have been playing, and my trust in Porter Moser. But I also can't bet against TCU at home. I'll just take the over here and get my popcorn ready.

Play: Over 148 (PointsBet)

UConn at Xavier

For the most difficult game of the evening to handicap we have UConn at Xavier. The Musketeers are 7-7 under Sean Miller with losses to Oakland, Delaware and Washington. The offense has struggled and their top-25th defense has kept games close, but not brought many impressive wins.

Connecticut has been playing shorthanded recently without Donovan Clingan but haven't shown much weakness with wins over St. John's, DePaul and Butler. Xavier is a step-up and Connecticut will have to bring their A-game to avoid an upset. Where the Musketeers line up well is on the interior. Boasting the ninth-best near-proximity defense, UConn's perimeter shooting will need to step-up, which I don't exactly trust and the Huskies have the desire for the interior look.

Xavier will have their work cut out for them offensively with UConn who does not allow second-chance looks and nothing from down low. Xavier will push the pace but Connecticut still lines up well in the transition game.

All in all, Big East play is inconsistent and like the wild west. Still, I see both defenses lining up well against one another and should wreak havoc on opposing offenses. I'm diving in on the under in this one.

Play: Under 146.5 (BetMGM)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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