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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/17)

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Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. In the dead of winter, nothing hits better than hot cocoa and conference basketball. There were some personal surprises last night with BYU stepping up at home, Purdue dominating on the road, and Tennessee dominating at home. Honestly, it has been a funky season all around. There is a lot of parity right now and I can't wait to see how teams shape up as the season progresses. As always, be sure to check for value when betting because there are some books out there that simply aren't as sharp as others.

Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.

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Wednesday's College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 30-28

Creighton at UConn

In a delightful Big East showdown, Creighton heads to the Harry A. Gampel Pavilion to take on the reigning National Champion UConn Huskies. Connecticut has only had one hiccup in conference with a concerning showing at Seton Hall while Creighton sits at 4-2 in conference play with continued high aspirations, despite a wonky season. 

My first instinct is that anything can happen here. The Big East is notoriously difficult to handicap and Creighton ranks 317th in the Haslametrics consistency metric. The Blue Jays can score 105, or 48. Who knows which team will show up?

My second instinct is that there will be a lot of opportunity for scoring. Neither team forces many turnovers with Creighton ranking almost dead last in all of college basketball. Creighton does a lot of scoring from beyond the arc – an area where the Huskies are arguably weakest – and ranks second in near-proximity shooting. UConn's 44th-ranked KenPom defense will have its hands full tonight.

With the pace expected to be slower than normal, this total is too low. Both teams rank in the top 25 in offensive efficiency, are efficient down low, take care of the ball, and will manufacture shots on most possessions. Neither squad has to exactly be crazy efficient for the over to hit, as there will be ample opportunity to score tonight.       

Play: Over 142.5 Total Points (-110 at FanDuel)

Mississippi State at Kentucky

For a game marked on my calendar since the start of the season, Chris Jans and company will head into Rupp Arena to take on Kentucky. Both teams are coming off losses which sets up bounce-back narratives on either side.     

Usually, home-court advantage is the name of the game in college basketball, but for this matchup, I'm not entirely sure if that is the case. Kentucky hasn't exactly shined in Rupp, scraping by Saint Joseph's in overtime and falling to UNC Wilmington – two mediocre teams. The Bulldogs have played better away from home this year, ranking third in the Haslametrics away-from-home metric.

What this game will come down to is Kentucky's offense against Mississippi State's defense – both top 10 units. The Wildcats can drill it from deep with a nearly 40 percent three-point shooting percentage, but Mississippi State forces opponents to beat them in the lane.

I am a bit scared for the transition game because Kentucky knows how to get up and go. So, this may be a Bulldogs first-half bet and Kentucky second-half when Mississippi State starts to falter. Kentucky's defense isn't that impressive, and Chris Jans' frontcourt should win the rebound battle for some second-chance looks. Money is almost always going to go to the Blue Bloods, so I am happy to zag here. I imagine this one to come down to the final possession.    

Play: Mississippi State +6.0 (-110 at Caesars)

Texas Tech at Houston

For a Houston team that just got bodied in their first two (real) Big XII games, it is stunning to me how big this spread is, especially considering how both teams rank outside the top 300 in pace of play. Get ready for a turtle race, folks.

While Houston has played significantly better at home, it's not like Texas Tech has to travel far. While the Cougars rank first in two-point defense, Texas Tech far outmatches them in the near-proximity look. Warren Washington and his seven-foot frame will be a problem for Houston, I can guarantee. 

The Red Raiders are riding a nine-game winning streak. While none of those wins have been particularly impressive, they have taken care of business, especially in Big XII play. Houston is still getting used to the physicality this conference has to offer. I'm not saying Texas Tech will win outright, but I am confident that this game will finish within single digits.     

Play: Texas Tech +12.0 (-110 at DraftKings)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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