The 2024-25 college basketball season rolls on and we have another loaded Wednesday night of games to wager on. Our top men's college basketball bets today feature Texas vs. Ole Miss in an entertaining SEC matchup. Plus, we lock in picks for Houston vs. West Virginia in the Big 12 and North Texas vs. Wichita State in the AAC.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 29th.
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Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas at Ole Miss (-5.5) | 141.5 O/U (-110/-110)
These two SEC teams appear to be trending in opposite directions right now. Ole Miss is on a three-game losing streak while Texas has won three of its last four, including a big win over rival Texas A&M on Saturday. Despite the recent results, it's buy-low time for the Rebels and a prime sell-high spot for the Longhorns.
Texas could be in for a letdown after its emotional come-from-behind victory against an in-state rival. The Longhorns overcame a 22-point second-half deficit to win by one at home vs. Texas A&M. It means plenty for their NCAA Tournament resume - in a revenge game, no less.
Now Texas goes on the road to unfamiliar territory in Oxford, Mississippi - a place the conference newcomers haven't played at in decades. Can you blame it for coming out a bit flat here, especially after Saturday's victory? The Longhorns haven't fared well in traditional SEC road games so far, losing by 20 points at Texas A&M and by 24 at Florida.
On the flip side, this is arguably a must-win situation for Ole Miss to break its losing streak. The Rebels started 4-0 in SEC play and need to get back on track before facing Auburn and Kentucky in the next two games. It's a brutal stretch, facing ranked opponents six times in a seven-game span. The lone outlier is this home spot vs. Texas.
Before losing by eight points at Missouri last weekend, the Rebels' previous two losses were coin toss results. Ole Miss suffered an overtime road loss at rival Mississippi State and then blew a late lead vs. Texas A&M to lose by one. Plus, in the game prior, the Rebels pulled off an impressive double-digit road upset at Alabama.
In this specific matchup, Mississippi has the edge in a couple of key areas. Per KenPom, the Rebels boast the SEC's top defensive efficiency during conference play while forcing turnovers at the highest rate as well. They're also holding league opponents to 27.3% three-point shooting while Texas is just 29.4% from three in SEC play (11th in conference).
Meanwhile, Texas ranks 15th in the conference in defensive efficiency itself. The Longhorns have been better defensively in the past two games but both came at home. On the road, they've given 84 and 80 points to Florida and Texas A&M, respectively. Though Ole Miss doesn't have the most potent offensive attack, it is the SEC's best at avoiding turnovers so far.
Grab Ole Miss to cover as home favorites. The Rebels are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in conference play and 12-5 ATS over their past 17 games. They bounce back with a convincing win here.
Pick: Ole Miss -5.5 (-110)
North Texas (-4.5) at Wichita State | 133.5 O/U (-110/-110)
Unless you're a diehard college basketball fan or sports bettor, this mid-week AAC matchup can easily fly under the radar. There are admittedly more entertaining games on tonight's schedule than North Texas vs. Wichita State. Even so, there's a clear lean in this one as the Mean Green are a clear tier above the Shockers right now.
North Texas is the best team in the American Athletic Conference not named Memphis. It's 6-1 in conference play and 15-4 overall this season. The Mean Green have won five straight games by nine or more points with an average margin of victory of 11.8 points vs. AAC opponents. They're also 5-1 ATS over the past six contests and 6-2 ATS in road/neutral games this year.
The Mean Green's four losses this season are all understandable. They lost on the road at Memphis, on a neutral court vs. Utah State and on the road at above-average mid-major teams McNeese State and High Point. Otherwise, North Texas has taken care of business against inferior opponents and regularly wins comfortably.
Meanwhile, Wichita State started 1-6 straight up (SU) and ATS in conference play thus far. The Shockers are also just 2-8 SU/ATS over their last 10 games vs. Division I opponents. They hit a new low point on Sunday with a loss to Tulsa, who's ranked 284th in the NET.
Besides all of the above results and context, this is a major mismatch in favor of North Texas. It has the best offensive efficiency in the AAC, per KenPom, while shooting 41.8% from three in league play. Wichita State is allowing the conference's highest opposing three-point percentage (43.4%) and effective field-goal percentage (57.2%). The Mean Green should get whatever they want on the offensive end.
On the other side, Wichita ranks 10th in offensive efficiency among AAC teams with a poor 31.0% three-point shooting rate in league games. North Texas boasts the conference's best two-point defense and its defensive efficiency is among the top 45 nationally this season overall. The Mean Green's extremely slow pace will also be tough for Wichita State to acclimate to, as it prefers to play fast.
Pick: North Texas -4.5 (-110)
Houston (-8.5) at West Virginia | 122.5 O/U (-115/-105)
For our last college basketball pick tonight, let's look at a Big 12 matchup between Houston and West Virginia. The Cougars are coming off a dramatic win on the road at Kansas over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers suffered an ugly 13-point loss at Kansas State on Saturday and have now lost five of their last seven games.
Instead of targeting a side on the spread, let's focus on the total. Overall, we should see a lower-scoring game with two strong defenses dictating the flow. The over/under suggests as much and even so, the under is still in play for a few reasons.
First, consider that Houston's offense may come out a bit flat after just winning a taxing, emotional battle in double overtime on the road over a conference juggernaut. The Cougars ended up scoring 92 points but they had just 66 at the end of regulation. More importantly, Houston should lean on its elite defense on the road here.
The Cougars boast the top-ranked defensive efficiency in the country this season, per KenPom. They're also first in opposing effective field-goal percentage (42.5%) and opposing two-point percentage (40.4%). In Big 12 play, Houston is first in defensive turnover rate, first in block rate and second in steal rate.
Kelvin Sampson's squad regularly puts on a clinic defensively. The unit has also traveled well, allowing 57.3 points per game (PPG) on the road in conference play before last weekend. Houston even held Kansas to 66 points before overtime. West Virginia is 111th nationally and 11th in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency. The Mountaineers have scored 60 points or fewer in three of the last four games and are averaging just 62.5 PPG in league play.
West Virginia could be a bit overmatched offensively, even at home. It's shooting just 29.2% from three vs. Big 12 opponents with the conference's worst offensive-rebounding rate and third-worst effective field-goal percentage (46.0%). It would be surprising to see the Mountaineers eclipse 60 points in this matchup.
We should see West Virginia lean on its defense. It ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency this year with the 18th-best effective field-goal rate allowed. In conference play, the Mountaineers are holding opponents to 28.1% from three with the third-best steal rate.
Take the under in this rockfight of a defensive battle. The under is 5-3 in Houston's Big 12 games so far and 8-4 over its last 12 games. West Virginia is 6-2 to the under vs. conference opponents and 9-3 to the under over its last 12 contests.
Pick: Under 122.5 Points (-105)
