College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/31)
Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. We’ve had consecutive winning days which is a truly great feeling so let’s make it three. College basketball is difficult to handicap already but this year has been especially interesting. There is plenty of time for teams to form identity and we’re only continuing to learn as the season progresses. College hoops has historically been my best sport to cover so I’m confident we’ll keep it rolling.
Here are my best bets for Wednesday’s slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.
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Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | Season: 36-34
Florida at Kentucky
Oh man, grab some popcorn and get ready for some fireworks because this is going to be a real barn burner tonight. Two of the fastest-paced teams in the college basketball landscape, both owning top-15 offenses, will go after it in what should be one of the most exciting games of the season.
The total for this game sits around 171, and rightfully so. Kentucky takes remarkable care of the ball, turning it over at the third-lowest rate in the nation. Combine that with a 40 percent clip from beyond the arc, and a sub-par defense from Florida, and I can see the Wildcats posting 90-plus tonight.
Florida offensively is the second-best team at grabbing offensive boards in DI, while converting second-chance looks at the 25th-highest clip. Kentucky allows a fair amount of looks from beyond the arc and the Gators should get plenty of opportunity from the charity stripe as well.
What I expect this game to come down to is who plays better in transition. John Calipari has fashioned his team to rank 17th in offensive transition game compared to Florida’s 315th ranking defensively in the same category. This is where I expect Kentucky to shine, and go on runs that will be too much for Florida to keep up with. I can go either way on the total, but I do like Kentucky to cover tonight in Rupp Arena.
Play: Kentucky -5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
St. John’s at Xavier
In another exciting matchup, Rick Patino’s squad heads to Cincinnati to take on Xavier. St. John’s has struggled recently, losing three of their last four games. To be fair, two of their losses were by one point with two of them on the road. In those four games going 1-3, they actually have a +3 plus-minus.
Xavier on the other hand has been a tough nut to crack, going 10-10 so far with a 275th consistency ranking. They’ve had some bad losses but have shown they can be competitive against teams like Houston and UConn (at home at least).
The Musketeers may be a different team at home, but St. John’s is the better team here. The Red Storm are electric on the offensive glass and top the nation in second-chance conversion percentage. They won’t dazzle offensively but if they get every miss against Xavier then they won’t need to. St. John’s also boasts a solid perimeter defense and will force a handful of turnovers. If you’re betting on this game, I’d recommend teasing it out one way or another. With a high pace and inconsistent play, I fully expect a double-digit final spread. St. John’s is my pick here to win.
Play: St. John’s +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Baylor at UCF
In a surprising turn of events, Baylor limps into Orlando having lost three straight games with two of them needing extra time. UCF hasn’t exactly impressed in their inaugural Big 12 season so far, with a 12-7 record, but they do have wins over Kansas and Texas.
The Knights are simply a different beast at home. Ranking third in home-court metric via Haslametrics I am scared to see how Baylor performs ranking 354th in the same metric away from home.
While UCF’s offense is bad, their defense is top-10 in the nation. About a month ago I would not be as confident in their ability to keep up with Baylor but after seeing them take down Kansas, I think they absolutely can. The Bears are inconsistent away from Waco and UCF allows nothing inside. With a sub-200 offensive ranking themselves, I see this game going well under the point total.
Play: Under 139.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: