Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/20)
The college basketball season is underway, and we have a fun Wednesday night of games to wager on. Our top men's college basketball bets feature a Top 25 matchup between Illinois and Alabama. Plus, we look at picks for Pepperdine vs. UNLV and Austin Peay vs. Morehead State.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds and sportsbooks. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 20.
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Wednesday’s Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Illinois vs. Alabama (-8.5) | O/U 167.5 (-110/-110)
Tuesday night’s best men's college basketball game takes us to a non-conference battle between Alabama and Illinois. These are two of the top 25 teams in the country, according to this week's AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll and ratings at KenPom and Bart Torvik. It's technically a neutral site game in Birmingham, Alabama, but for all intents and purposes, the Crimson Tide will have the home-court advantage with their campus about an hour away.
Alabama will be motivated to notch a convincing victory coming off last weekend's road loss at Purdue. The Crimson Tide have another big matchup against Houston on deck next. Locking down a marquee non-conference win for the resume - especially after just losing to Purdue - is critical for Alabama.
In that Purdue loss, the Crimson Tide shot just 9-of-29 from three-point range (31%), with National Player of the Year candidate Mark Sears scoring 15 points on 5-of-15 shooting. Alabama also went cold in the final 10 minutes of a close game to allow Purdue to pull away. Sears and this fast-paced, high-scoring offense is too good to be held down for consecutive games. Alabama is loaded with three key pieces back from last year's Final Four squad, Rutgers transfer Clifford Omoruyi owning the paint and multiple high-recruit freshmen.
Alabama's experience in a tough road environment against a top-tier opponent can’t be overlooked this early in the year. The Crimson Tide have also played three above-average mid-major opponents so far. Two of those - McNeese State and Arkansas State - were picked to win their respective leagues, and both gave Alabama a challenge.
Meanwhile, Illinois comes into this matchup without being truly tested yet this season. It's 3-0 but has yet to play any team of note. The toughest team the Fighting Illini have played so far was Oakland last week, and they only scored 66 points in a 12-point win, failing to cover as 23.5-point favorites. That result looks even worse when you consider Oakland lost by 21 to Kansas and by 44 to Boise State.
Illinois is an intriguing team with three talented freshmen and some notable transfers. Still, this is a program that went through a complete roster overhaul in the offseason after losing all nine of its top scorers from a year ago. We've yet to see the new-look Illini prove themselves against a good team.
Pick: Alabama -8.5 (-110)
Austin Peay (-2.5) at Morehead State | O/U 138.5 (-116/-108)
Our second pick takes us to the mid-major ranks where Morehead State hosts Austin Peay. This is a random college hoops game to bet on, but there's an edge to be had here.
A year ago, Morehead State went 23-8 in the regular season en route to an NCAA Tournament appearance. Over the offseason, though, the Eagles went through a complete program rebuild. Head coach Preston Spradlin left for James Madison and all five leading scorers either graduated or transferred away. That includes Ohio Valley Player of the Year Riley Minix and multiple upperclassmen.
It's now first-time head coach Jonathan Mattox at the helm with a slew of new and unproven names filling out the roster. Morehead's only remaining player from last year is Dieonte Miles, a defense-first center with a limited offensive skillset. Overall, KenPom rates Morehead 300th in the country.
The Eagles are 0-3 against Division I (D1) competition this year. Two of those losses came against Cincinnati and Louisville - which is understandable - by 27 and 48 points, respectively. The other was a 14-point loss to Chattanooga in which they failed to cover the spread.
Admittedly, Austin Peay isn't much better from a metrics standpoint at 223rd overall, per KenPom. However, the Governors offer much more confidence this early in the season. They already boast a road upset over Butler - a win that's aging nicely since Butler is 3-1 with a double-digit win vs. SMU. They also beat Chattanooga, which gives us a common opponent with Morehead.
Austin Peay also lost some pieces from last year but it did bring back two senior starters in big man Sai Witt and wing Isaac Haney. More importantly, though, the Governors added playmaking guard transfer LJ Thomas from NC State. While he barely played last season, Thomas has been an immediate difference-maker and should thrive against easier competition. He's averaging 19.8 points per game (PPG) so far and just put up 20 against Tennessee.
Though Morehead State is at home, Austin Peay is the better team and should win. KenPom has the Governors projected to eke out a one-point victory, for what it's worth. Plus, Austin Peay should have revenge on its mind after losing to Morehead at home a year ago.
Pick: Austin Peay -2.5 (-118)
Pepperdine at UNLV (-16.5) | O/U 146.5 (-110/-110)
Our third and final college basketball bet tonight features Pepperdine vs. UNLV in a West Coast non-conference matchup. The Runnin' Rebels are favored by double-digits at home here, but we're leaning right into that. They should win comfortably in a mismatch against Pepperdine.
Handicapping this game starts with understanding Pepperdine's dire situation. The program is going through a complete rebuild after veteran coach Lorenzo Romar left in the offseason. The Waves also had to replace all five starters and eight of their top nine scorers from a year ago.
Pepperdine's best players now are Stefan Todorovic (he averaged 3.8 PPG for San Francisco last season) and Moe Odum (he averaged 8.7 PPG for Pacific last season). New coach Ed Schilling is also in his first head job since 2003 at Wright State. The Waves were picked to finish last in the West Coast Conference and didn't have a single player on the 11-man preseason all-conference squad.
The roster overhaul and coaching change have predictably led to a slow start. Pepperdine is 1-2 with its lone win coming against Western Illinois (ranked 327th in the sport, per KenPom). The Waves have lost back-to-back games to UC San Diego and UC Irvine by 18 points apiece coming into tonight.
UNLV also had to replace four out of five starters from last year, but the one starter it brought back was a big one. Dedan Thomas is a rising star in the Mountain West Conference after averaging 13.6 PPG and 5.1 assists per game (APG) as a freshman last year. The Rebels are a potential NCAA Tournament team because of Thomas, who's averaging 18.0 PPG through three games. UNLV is also a veteran team with four upperclassman starters.
The Runnin' Rebels are 2-1 this season with both wins coming by double digits against lower-tier mid-majors. In their one tough matchup thus far, the Runnin' Rebels suffered a close home loss to Memphis in a back-and-forth affair. Despite being on the wrong end, they can take solace in going toe-to-toe with a top-40 team in the country.
UNLV is a clear tier above Pepperdine right now and it should show on the scoreboard tonight. The Rebels went 11-4 against the spread (ATS) at home last season and are due to cover this large spread after starting 0-2-1 ATS in their first three home games.
Pick: UNLV -16.5 (-105)