College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/22)

by Ryan Coleman |
Nov 22, 2023

It's been a solid start to the season and is only getting more exciting with Feast Week upon us. Tonight features an excellent slate as the Maui Invitational features the championship game, and the Battle 4 Atlantis begins along with multiple other in-season tournaments.

We are starting to get some valuable data and seeing where some of the elite teams sit. As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds. It may not be Thanksgiving yet, but let's eat early with some winning bets, shall we?

Here are my best bets for Wednesdayâ€™s slate:

Wednesdayâ€™s College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 11-6

#1 Purdue vs. #4 Marquette

Marquette sent Kansas home with their tail between their legs with a 73-59 victory over the Jayhawks. We now have our Maui Invitational championship game lined up, as Purdue defeated Tennessee in a stellar boxing match against the Volunteers.

If I am playing the narrative game here, Purdue really is coming from a rock fight, attempting 48 free throws yesterday against Tennessee. That game took two hours and 24 minutes. I don't want to say Marquette walked away with the victory over Kansas, but I imagine the Golden Eagles might be a bit better rested heading into tonight's game.

Still, this should be an awesome game. The frontcourts of both teams stepped up yesterday with Zach Edey doing his thing - 23 points in only 26 minutes - and Oso Ighodaro doing his for Marquette with 21 points and nine boards to go with a pair of blocks. When these two teams faced one another last year, Marquette grabbed 34% of their misses, one of the highest clips Purdue allowed all season. With nine of the 10 starters returning between the two teams, I see the rebound battle being another potential crux for tonight's game.

Last year, Purdue still pulled out the victory in West Lafayette. Tonight's matchup may bode well for the Boilermakers with Marquette struggling so far on both ends of the floor to grab rebounds at a higher-than-average clip. What has been surprising for Shaka Smart and Co. is their defense, ranking 17th highest in near-proximity percentage, limiting Hunter Dickinson to 13 points.

But Purdue is more than just Edey, don't forget. Ranking 10th in perimeter shooting, this team has weapons, with Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gills and Myles Colvin all being able to sling it. After yesterday's game, I imagine Purdue will gladly take the open perimeter look instead of ending up on the floor constantly with fouls called in the paint.

Purdue has the ever-slight upper hand here. They got their charity stripe practice yesterday, and Marquette ranked 311th in free-throw percentage this year, so a close game late favors the Boilermakers. Purdue is the best team in the nation, and tonight will be confirmation of that.

Bet: Purdue -3.5 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

#7 Tennessee vs. #1 Kansas

The third-place game in the Maui Invitational is a true delight, with the seventh and ninth-best teams facing off via KenPom. I won't bury the lede here: Tennessee is the better team.

Dalton Knecht was held (yes, held) to 16 points and was quiet in the second half. Tennessee committed 30 fouls with Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka fouling out. They also surrendered 17 offensive rebounds to Purdue, shot 26.7% from beyond the arc and still only lost by four to the Boilermakers. They had plenty of open shots but left a lot on the table, with nine missed free throws and plenty of missed opportunities.

Sure, Kansas had missed opportunities, too. But scoring 59 points against Marquette is concerning, mainly when they limited the Golden Eagles to 24% shooting from deep. Dickinson will have his work cut out for him, with Tennessee ranking second-best in mid-range defense and 20th in near-proximity. To beat Kentucky, Dickinson and Dajuan Harris had to go nuclear, with Harris shooting 5-6 from beyond the arc. Facing off against the No. 1 KenPom defense, after playing two straight days, is concerning to me for what this KU offense will be able to manage. This will be another elite battle, but I am surprised when I say I trust Tennessee's capacity to score more tonight.

I expect them to stay around the perimeter more, with Haslametrics projecting over 40% of their looks to come from deep tonight. After going 8-30 from deep yesterday, that number is due for positive regression. Combine that with an expected struggle for Kansas offensively, and I will take Tennesee out right here.

Play: Tennessee ML (+100 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

#11 Gonzaga vs. UCLA

I truly love it when the third-best game on the slate is Gonzaga-UCLA. What's better than this?

This game features a true clash of styles. Gonzaga loves to run it, while UCLA has the 296th slowest pace. The Bruins will back the lane, allowing more perimeter shots, while over 60% of Gonzaga's points have come from inside the arc, the 28th highest in the nation.

For their similarities, both teams rebound well and rank in the top 20 in perimeter defense. Adem Bona is a force down-low for UCLA, with a 12.2% block rate, the 25th highest among all DI players. Gonzaga prefers the interior look but the Bruins own the fourth-best near-proximity defense in the country. This is no Syracuse.

With both teams losing their opening game, neither squad wants to go home with two losses. That said, this is the third game in as many days with a remarkably late, midnight Eastern start time. I expect UCLA to control the pace and eliminate the second-chance opportunities for the Zags. I won't take the Bruins outright, but they showed their ability to compete by going shot for shot against Marquette. This will be a one-possession game in a low-scoring affair.

Play: UCLA +5.5 (-110 via PointsBet)

Michigan vs. Memphis

It may not be the most exciting game on paper, but both teams can make waves in March. Memphis has been awesome with a 3-0 start to the year, including a 15-point drubbing on the road against Missouri. Michigan has already had an up-and-down season with an impressive victory at St. John's, followed by a concerning defeat to Long Beach State in Ann Arbor.

What this game will come down to is rebounding. Both teams are effective on the offensive glass, with Michigan ranking 32nd and Memphis 89th. Still, the other side of the ball may be an issue for the Wolverines. Michigan has struggled to keep teams from grabbing their own misses, allowing 11 offensive boards to Long Beach State and ranking near the bottom 300 in defensive rebounding. In addition, Memphis has been the sixth-best team in the country at second-chance conversion percentage so far, so Michigan will have its work cut out for them.

Memphis has the upper hand here. The rebounding note assumes they aren't making shots, which isn't the most likely occurrence since they rank 20th at three-point percentage, while Michigan's perimeter defense is spotty. The Wolverines don't force enough turnovers to make Memphis pay for their aggressiveness, and the interior defense of the Tigers is on par with any team in the nation. It should be close, but Memphis will have better looks and more opportunity to score tonight. That's a recipe for a win.

Play: Memphis PK (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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