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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/29)

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The ACC/SEC challenge kicked off, and it did not disappoint. Kentucky dominated, while Clemson, Mississippi, Syracuse, Missouri and Georgia Tech all surprised with upsets in their respective games. Tonight, we continue with some solid games as the season progresses, so let's get right to it.

Remember to shop around for the best odds, as college basketball lines drastically vary from book to book, so there is ample value to be had.  

Here are my best bets for Wednesday’s slate:

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Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 2-2 | Season: 15-10

#10 Tennessee @ #17 North Carolina

In what has been a surprising turn of events for the taking, North Carolina has gotten out of the gate hot with a 5-1 start. Their lone loss was a game that went to overtime on a neutral court against Villanova; nothing to hang your head about.

Meanwhile, Tennessee has lost their last two games but, they were to two top-10 teams in Purdue and Kansas. Both squads playing tonight are going through the schedule gauntlet right now.

While they own the 11th-best KenPom offense, I don't know how Hubert Davis is going to gameplan for this physical unit that is the top-ranked Tennessee defense. From beyond the arc, the Volunteers have the second-best opponent shooting percentage, with their near-proximity shooting ranked No. 1 in the country. Their transition defense is also elite and Tennesee is limiting second-chance conversions at the 11th-best clip in the nation.     

Rick Barnes is the coach for the Volunteers, and after facing Purdue and Kansas, Tennessee has learned how to face big men. Armando Bacot has continued his ways for the Tar Heels, and RJ Davis has been solid. But if UNC can't run its offense through Bacot, I do expect them to struggle.

I was in on Tennessee preseason and out on UNC, so my priors may be shining through a bit. Still, Tennessee is the better team here. Dalton Knecht has been a ton of fun to watch, and after some rest, this Volunteer team - who opened as a pick - should win outright. My official play will be the spread because I like the value, but don't be afraid to go to the Tennessee money line.

Play: Tennessee +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

#7 Duke @ Arkansas

Arkansas has had a weird identity crisis-led start to their season with a 4-3 record. If not for some double-overtime magic, they would be riding a four-game losing streak, coming off an embarrassing effort against North Carolina.

Now, they return home to Bud Walton Arena, and if anyone can turn it around, it should be Eric Musselman. Duke has been able to coast in the last week, facing three sub-200 ranked teams. I am sure they’ve had this match circled on their calendars for a while.   

Kyle Filipowski has continued his electric ways, ranking fourth in the early-season Player of the Year Deserves category on KenPom. The front-court piece has done it all on both sides of the court and will make it difficult for Arkansas and their 39th-ranked offense to score from the lane as easily.

If Duke can stay out of foul trouble, they should coast tonight. Arkansas loves getting to the paint and drawing contact with the eighth-highest free throw rate in the country. Beyond that and a solid second-chance conversion percentage, this Razorbacks offense lacks firepower. I expect Duke and their near-proximity game to be too much for Arkansas. Recent play tells me a cover is in store for the Blue Devils. 

Play: Duke -5.5 (-105 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

#14 Texas A&M @ Virginia

In everyone’s favorite game to watch, we have the 361st-paced team and the 282nd-paced team facing off. It should be a betting galore. 

This game will come down to the rebound battle. Diametrically opposing units give the Aggies a clear advantage on the glass, with the top-ranked offensive rebound percentage going up against Virginia's 329th defensive rebound percentage. Virginia forces a lot of misses, but with Texas A&M's 10th-ranked second-chance conversion percentage, the Aggies will clean up on the glass.

The Aggies aren't exactly known for their defense, but unless Virginia is slinging it from deep tonight, I can't say I'm worried for Virginia to go gangbusters with their 90th-ranked offense. In terms of pure vibes, this Virginia team is off. Scoring 18 points in the first half against Wisconsin is concerning, and only 56 total against a sub-100-ranked West Virginia team is even worse. I think scoring 60 points gets it done here for the Aggies, who should be favored tonight.

Play: Texas A&M +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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