Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (12/11)
The 2024-25 college basketball season rolls on and we have an intriguing Wednesday night of games to wager on. Our top men's college basketball bets today feature an under-the-radar matchup between South Dakota State and Nevada. Plus, let's lock in picks for Bryant vs. St. John's and UTEP vs. Louisville.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds and sportsbooks. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 11th.
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Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bryant at St. John's (-22.5) | O/U 160.5 (-110/-110)
Our first pick today takes us to Carnesecca Arena in Queens, NY as St. John's hosts Bryant. The Red Storm will likely win this game easily and the spread indicates as much. So, let's focus on the total as we should see plenty of points from both squads.
Bryant's style of play is a recipe for higher-scoring games. The Bulldogs play at the seventh-fastest tempo among all Division I teams, per KenPom. They're also shooting 38% from three-point range (45th) but rank 211th nationally in defending the three themselves. Thus, Bryant is averaging 84.4 points per game (30th) while allowing 77.1 points per game (309th). That contrast is the ideal combination for overs.
Rafael Pinzon (19.6 points per game) and Earl Timberlake (15.2 points per game) lead the way for a Bryant team that plays fast and shoots it well from deep. Both Pinzon (St. John's) and Timberlake (Memphis/Miami) have high-major experience and can go toe-to-toe with the Johnnies at times tonight.
Meanwhile, St. John's will gladly play at Bryant's quick pace. Rick Pitino's squad ranks 28th in offensive tempo and 30th in offensive efficiency this season, per KenPom. The Red Storm are averaging 82.8 points per game and just scored 88 points at home against Kansas State this past weekend. They have a below-average three-point defense (216th nationally), which could allow Bryant to get going from the perimeter.
Grab the over. Bryant will push the tempo and has respectable offensive firepower to do its part while St. John's does its thing at home.
Pick: Over 160.5 Points (-110)
UTEP at Louisville (-14.5) | O/U 144.5 (-115/-105)
Louisville was an embarrassment the past two seasons but things are looking up this year. Pat Kelsey is in as head coach and the Cardinals have a much more talented roster. Even so, we're fading the home favorites tonight with UTEP coming to town.
First, this is a classic sandwich spot for Louisville amid two marquee matchups. The Cardinals began ACC play on Sunday against Duke and then face hated rival Kentucky coming up this weekend. In between is this game against mid-major UTEP. Before considering any X's and O's, we have to wonder about the motivation for Louisville to cover a double-digit spread in this spot.
Louisville is also struggling to replace the lost production of Kasean Pryor. The senior big man was the team's leader in both usage and shot rates before suffering a torn ACL. Since Pryor got hurt, the Cardinals have scored 65 or fewer points in three straight games and are 0-3 against the spread (ATS). Pryor's offensive skills are missed but he was also arguably Louisville's best overall defender as a presence in the paint.
On the other side, UTEP boasts a few key characteristics that make it a dangerous underdog. The Miners rank first in all of college basketball in defensive turnover rate with the third-highest steal rate, per KenPom. That's saying a lot for a mid-major program, and it's nothing new for Joe Golding's squad. UTEP was also first in defensive turnover and steal rates last season.
Admittedly, the Miners haven't faced a team as good as Louisville yet this year. Still, they are 4-1 ATS in the past five games and 2-0 ATS as underdogs so far. Plus, UTEP has a veteran rotation with three seniors and one junior in the starting lineup and two more upperclassmen coming off the bench. This isn’t an easy matchup for the Cardinals, who could be looking ahead to Kentucky a bit.
Pick: UTEP +14.5 (-102)
South Dakota State at Nevada (-10.5) | O/U 140.5 (-110/-110)
Let's wrap up the college basketball picks with a late-night tip between South Dakota State and Nevada. This is a fascinating matchup featuring a pair of teams expected to challenge for their respective league titles this year.
Nevada has been an NCAA Tournament team for the past two seasons and is a dark horse contender in the Mountain West. Meanwhile, South Dakota State was also in the March Madness bracket a year ago and is the best team in the Summit League for a second straight season. These are two above-average programs outside of the power conferences, which should lead to more defensive intensity overall.
Per KenPom, Nevada ranks 349th in adjusted tempo this season. The Wolf Pack runs methodical offensive possessions and deploys a tight defense on the other end to force opponents to play at their slower pace. In turn, Nevada is 6-3 to the under this year and 5-1 to the under in the past six games.
Nevada's offense has taken a step back from last year with some key names no longer in town. Much of the Wolf Pack's lead ball-handling and playmaking fell on the shoulders of fifth-year seniors Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas, who both graduated. In their absences, Nevada's backcourt isn't as reliable with big man Nick Davidson and point-forward Kobe Sanders (Cal Poly transfer) as the team's only double-digit scorers so far.
The Wolf Pack are shooting an impressive 40.5% from three, but some negative regression is bound to come there. South Dakota State, meanwhile, is holding opponents to 30% from deep. As for the Jackrabbits, they also underwent some big offseason changes with all five starters departing - headlined by Zeke Mayo, who's now at Kansas.
The South Dakota State offense now leans heavily on its interior scoring with center Oscar Cluff as the catalyst. Well, Nevada has the size, length and paint defense to slow Cluff down. We could see the Jackrabbits go through scoreless stretches considering they're shooting just 31.4% from three themselves (240th nationally). South Dakota State is also 4-1 to the under in their last five games vs. Division I opponents this year.
Pick: Under 140.5 Points (-110)