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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (12/20)

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It's been a decent College Basketball season, but we continue gaining more and more data as we progress. Historically, I have improved as the season continued, so this has been a successful season compared to years past.

Consistent conference play is just around the corner but tonight we have a truly spectacular slate. There are plenty of awesome games, so let's get right to it. Remember to shop for the best odds, as value is hidden across the College Basketball landscape.

Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate:

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Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 22-20

#10 Baylor vs. #21 Duke

After starting the year 9-0, the Baylor Bears were drubbed by the Spartans by over 20 points. Duke has coasted in their last two games but hasn't had a real contest in over two weeks after losses to Georgia Tech and Arkansas. 

This should truly be a fantastic game between two top-10 offenses. What I think it will come down to is who wins the rebounding matchup. Baylor owns the eighth-best offensive rebound rate, while Duke's defensive rebound rate ranks 11th. 

The Bears have the best perimeter shooting in the country but rank 342nd in the Haslametrics away-from-home metric. Duke takes care of the ball at an elite clip with a top-10 offense but ranks 352nd in the same metric. Both teams will suffer a setback playing at Madison Square Garden compared to how they play at home.

With only roughly a two-point spread, this is quite a tough game to handicap. Judging how the teams will show up is quite difficult to evaluate, and going based on analytics isn't all too helpful. Still, the under feels like the right play here. Neither team exactly pushes the pace, and Baylor depends a lot on the offensive boards for scoring. Duke will limit that. The Bears’ defense may not be elite but they have a top-50 perimeter defensive rate. This total is too high.

Play: Over 154.5 (-105)

#11 North Carolina @ #7 Oklahoma

One of the more surprising teams this season, Porter Moser's Sooners have started the season 10-0 with impressive wins over Iowa, USC and Arkansas, all on neutral courts. UNC has lost each of their last two games but to reasonable opponents in UConn and Kentucky. This should be another excellent matchup.

Where Oklahoma will dominate is in the mid-range. Ranking 11th in mid-range shooting percentage, they far outrank UNC's defense, which comes in at 326th in mid-range defense. Javian McCollum has been an effective point guard for Oklahoma. With Otega Oweh owning the 10th-highest effective field goal percentage, both players are a big reason they are top-35 in offensive efficiency. 

Where the Sooners have truly excelled is defensively. With the fifth-highest three-point defense, UNC's shooters will struggle tonight in the Spectrum Center. Despite not having the most efficient offense, Moser has done an elite job coaching to own the second-ranked transition scoring offense while ranking 16th in second-chance conversion percentage. UNC should limit offensive boards, but I expect Oklahoma to shoot well already. Give me the Sooners tonight. 

Play: Oklahoma +2.5 (-108)

Alabama @ #4 Arizona

Not only is this potentially one of the more thrilling games for the entire season, but it also shows how elite Arizona is. Despite both teams ranking in the top 10 on KenPom, the Wildcats are still 7.5-point favorites in Phoenix tonight.

Honestly, this game could go any which way. Arizona ranks 353rd in efficiency in playing at home metric. What scares me more is Alabama's metrics on the road. They come in at 346th in away-from-home metric, losing three of their four games away from home. Arizona's metric is a bit misleading, though, as it more so shows how well they play on the road. 

Alabama may be coming off two losses, but they played Purdue and Creighton quite close. What this game will come down to is perimeter defense. The Crimson Tide owns the 20th-best perimeter shooting, which is the biggest weakness of the third-ranked adjusted defense from Arizona. Over 35% of opponents’ points come from beyond the arc for Arizona, the 41st-highest in DI basketball. The top-ranked Alabama offense will be a difficult one for the Wildcats to stop.

Still, I don't expect Alabama to be able to keep up with a sub-100-ranked defense. Arizona is the best team at converting second-chance teams in the nation while far outranking Nate Oats and Co. anywhere on the floor. This will be the definition of a game of runs, so this will be a prime spot for live betting. Still, Arizona should run away with it in the end.  

Play: Arizona -7.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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